There have been a number of stories about air travel becoming more expensive in the future. Most of those assume some sort of government limit on the number of people allowed on each aircraft.
- Aircraft are expensive to own and operate, which means their limited real estate comes at a high price.
- Giving more space to each person would mean much higher prices.
- Or, more accurately, it would mean airlines operate fewer flights – limited to service that supports high enough fares where airlines can make money only filling some of their seats.
However airlines aren’t going to be filling up seats they are selling any time soon. At the Wolfe Research conference on Tuesday, airline analyst Hunter Keay asked Delta Air Lines CFO Paul Jacobson what he thinks average U.S. domestic load factors will be in 2021, noting that they were around 85% in 2019.
Jacobson said load factors would be “probably slightly under” 75% for 2021 given that Delta “believe[s in] slower recovery going forward, absent a vaccine there will not be much appetite to get onto an 85% – 90% load factor airplane.”
Delta is capping all flights at 60% of capacity through June 30. To maintain that commitment they’re adding flights “to give confidence” to customers. Even if Delta is able to sell 60% and eventually 75% of seats on planes, we can expect them to then add flights and seats which will continue to put downward pressure on prices. And of course as other airlines as seats that’ll push pricing down even further.
Ultimately Jacobson sees “5 years from now” things “relatively returned to normal” even including international business travel, which will come back more slowly than domestic leisure demand.
Some people will continue to want to distance on planes, even long past the pandemic, so bear in mind that if an empty seat next to you is important you can just buy one.
Wow, Delta is flying at 60% capacity?
People (in general) just won’t travel on airplanes unless absolutely necessary until there’s a vaccine. It’s that simple. Combine that with the fact that there’s 30 million people out of a job, plus corporations hesitant about asking their employees to travel for meetings again, and 2021 is not going to be back to normal.
People won’t travel on airplanes while the experience is unpleasant. Forced mask wearing, limited service, FAs in hazmat suits, etc. all make flying unpleasant. Some of these are necessary for now for sure, but it is a big turnoff to potential travelers.
I somewhat disagree. We’re already seeing routes where capacity has been cut so much the load factors are very high and thus prices are very high. I could see the airlines maintaining constrained supply as a way to keep prices elevated. Also, competition is at a low due to regionals being run out of business.
@Ryan agreed.
I was just talking to my friend last night about this and as much as I want to travel I don’t see it actually being “fun” for at least 2 years. Even in business and first class your still getting treated like an economy passenger.
I read somewhere IATA isn’t expecting to see passenger traffic return to similar levels until 2023. Yikes.
I started looking at UA fares for some trips this summer. Highest prices I’ve ever seen and virtually no service. No thanks.
I just looked up some AA fares from Bos to Tokyo (either) for mid Sept. These are pricing at $9 K + for J. If there are cheap fares out there for long haul, I don’t see them. And facing down FAs in hazmat suits, no thank you. Given what I can see from here it will be a long time before we can relax and travel the world again. I worry that tourism will get clobbered by crazy airfares as badly as it got hammered by Covid. Damn shame.
I will face even a 10-11 hour flight if I can spend 2 weeks or more in Paris. Flying is just a small part.
But most likely a year from now.
Gary, i think pricing will be variable depending on country, competition and demand. Australia is going to be higher on “full” service airlines because QF can. I laugh at the comments about the space suits and perceived lack of service in J. These are not normal times, so we should pare back our expectations as FA’s are also humans and need to stay healthy like the rest of us. I hope the all the stuff they have to wear for so many hours protects them , although they are probably just as vulnerable as the rest of us when they go through the airport grounds. No easy answers for a while.
Well it may be cheap in 2021, but not now. Currently I found the tickets are forbiddenly expensive (3 weeks ahead). People who need to fly now are considered expendables and cannot avoid traveling, so the price gets insane??
I think that some people will prefer trains and buses to short flights , especially in Europe where these services are of reasonably high quality .