Delta Flyer With 2 Million SkyMiles Says She Can’t Get To France — Is This When Members Finally Wake Up?

Occasionally a Delta Air Lines flyer gets hit with the realization that their entire life collecting SkyMiles has been a lie. Like a slap on the forehead by someone realizing they could have had a V-8, there’s a recognition that they’ve made horrible choices. They did all their spending on a SkyMiles American Express card because they chose to fly Delta, not because they’d given serious thought to actually getting value. And as a result they’ve accepted far less than they would have gotten elsewhere, because Delta just gives customers far less for its points.

To be sure, other airlines have devalued their points too but Delta truly has led the way over the past dozen years towards the enshittification of its loyalty program. And their tradition of offering customers less for their points dates back much further.

And here’s one SkyMiles member, prominent in social media, having just realized it assuming that others will as well and that it will cost Delta. But it hasn’t. I’ve expected that it would matter for many years, and maybe eventually it will, but the fact that it has not yet fundamentally challenges my core models of consumer behavior and microeconomic efficiency.

It simply does not make sense to earn SkyMiles over other rewards as a currency. I have always said that Delta miles are not worthless. Just are just worth less.

That’s why it simply does not make sense to spend money on a Delta credit card, except to earn status. You may want to have a Delta card (for instance, for the lounge access if you fly Delta enough). But you do not want to use it.

So why have customers stayed with SkyMiles?

  • Delta has strong positions in its core markets. Atlanta is an enviable hub, and its market position in ex-Northwest strongholds is unmatched. Northwest executives used to say about the Upper Midwest that ‘it’s cold, it’s dark, no one wants to go there.. but it’s all ours!’
  • Delta has been seen as the premium airline.
  • Relatedly, Delta has been the most reliable airline. Before Covid, they almost never cancelled a mainline flight for reasons other than weather.
  • Customers chose Delta, and were stuck with Delta, so they simply assumed they needed to be part of SkyMiles if they cared about travel rewards. That’s especially true for passengers who traveled enough to earn SkyMiles status.

Scott Kirby began arguing, shortly after joining United Airlines a decade ago, that rebuilding his airline’s domestic strength was important for the credit card business because being the largest carrier in the market would earn an outsized portion of that market’s card adoption and spend – it wasn’t about offering value to consumers, it was mere scale of the airline’s presence.

There’s something to it, but it seems like there shouldn’t be – there might be a lag before consumers learn the difference, but that consumers would ultimately gravitate towards whomever is offering them the greatest value at least along enough of a margin to matter. And yet in airline loyalty that hasn’t seemed to be the case. Maybe the lag is just longer than I ever thought? Or Delta hadn’t pushed consumers far enough, but finally they have?

The status reason to stick with SkyMiles has far less force than it used to, because Delta has led the way in devaluing what they actually deliver for status.

The single most valuable benefit of status has been first class upgrades. Delta Air Lines led the industry in eliminating those. Twenty years ago 90% of first class seats went to upgrades and awards. Ten years ago it was about half.

Now only around 12% of seats are left for SkyMiles elite members. And that means on many routes and flights there are no upgrades at all. And Delta has had more success than any other airline in selling leftover first class seats to once a year flyers – for as little as $26 – rather than making those available complimentary to customers spending $30,000 or more a year with the airline.

Delta has lost its significant reliability advantage over competitors. They never really regained their operational edge post-pandemic. I originally traced this to the loss of their operations guru Gil West in 2020 and turnover of 31% of employees during the pandemic, which meant the loss of organizational knowledge. Now even their President has left.

And it’s that reliability edge – combined with a far greater investment in branding than other airlines – that Delta’s executives say meant that they didn’t need to invest as much in SkyMiles. By contrast, American Airlines has had little else but to retain a strategic focus on ensuring their mileage currency is more valuable. The argument for staying loyal to American from its top management has been domestic schedule and AAdvantage.

Delta’s SkyMiles program has been less rewarding than peers for a quarter century. One of my lines that has stuck best was coining the term ‘SkyPesos’ for their currency, back in 2009. And this was from 2003 when frequent flyers rented a moving billboard to drive around on a truck outside the airline’s annual shareholders meeting:

A decade ago Henry Harteveldt’s consumer research suggested that SkyMiles members had been pushed too far to the point that there would be consequences for the airline, but there weren’t.

And this is one of the greatest challenges to how I think about the world. My mental model is that in the long run, quality matters and value matters.

On the one hand, Delta has the most successful frequent flyer program in terms of generating revenue. But maybe it’s less successful than it should be? In 2019 they signed a 10-year extension of their American Express deal. They projected at the time that deal would generate $7 billion in revenue by 2023. It didn’t – it just missed that target – but it was aided by over 20% pandemic inflation that hadn’t been expected when the deal was announced. In real terms they were more than 20% behind projections.

They were aided by a deal that has run deeper with American Express than American Airlines has had with its cobrand partners, and that United had with Chase (American’s new deal with Citibank inches closer in structure). And they were aided by a faltering American that fell over the last decade from number one in cobrand card spending to number three, and a market presence that declined in key spend markets like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles.

Maybe Delta is running out of headroom. There’s no one left to sell an American Express card to. That’s why free wifi that requires SkyMiles membership is so important, why their Starbucks and Uber partnerships are so important, and why their DraftKings deal that was announced by never implemented could be so important – they need to feed the top of the marketing funnel with new blood because their existing members are tapped out.

In fall 2023 they tried to squeeze existing members to spend far more on their cards but hit a brick wall and walked back program changes as a step too far. They can’t get any more blood from the sone.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. The people I know who swear by their DL AMEX cards do so because of the free checked bag benefit or the 15% discount on award flights.
    They fail to recognize that they earn only 1 point per dollar when they use their card for other purchases, and that they could earn up to 4 points per dollar with a non-branded AMEX card. Those points would still transfer to DL which would effectively reduce the price of their flight to 1/4 the points they’d pay if they earned them on their branded card.
    Still I do blame Delta for their high redemptions. They’re just not competitive with other carriers. And those who aren’t skilled at flying with points are easily deceived by DL.

  2. And from my only limited experience the AmEx card is not taken by a lot of merchants because of its high costs to them, and for the average person the rewards it offers by itself are useless. So it’s a higher end card they are trying to use with a mass market Maybe Delta should take a step back and rethink its entire marketing strategy and whether this really is the company it wants to be associated with.

  3. While all of the complaints about Delta are valid, trying to find summer travel to Europe at the end of May with miles on any airline isn’t exactly easy. Did this person expect there to be multiple nonstop flights available for booking?

  4. One of many reasons to abandon the loyalty programs and become a straight-up “Want First, Buy First” free-agent. Schedule and price, everything else is secondary.

  5. It’s one thing to fly Delta loyally, it’s another altogether to put non-MSR spend on their credit cards. That’s unforgivable. Having said that, skymiles are fine for domestic travel, but garbage for international. You just got to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these programs, but idiot influencers and their even more braindead followers can’t be bothered.

  6. @ Gary — As I am sure you are well aware, but this Brooke person is a bit of an idiot. Multiple legs? Oh, the horror! I guess she wouldn’t be able to comprehend positioning flights and separate tickets? We have been able to book nonstop ATL-HND-ATL and ATL-ICN-ATL for less than 200,000 miles twice this year. If you are too dumb to think outside the box or to understand that a super convenient fortress-hub to fortress-hub nonstop on the precise day you want will cost alot, well, maybe you should pay cash.

  7. @Mantis — Are you incapable of not calling others silly names like “idiot” or “braindead” or some equivalent insult on here? There are better ways to express disagreement.

  8. It’s been a trash airline and program for the most part for many years with mostly poor customer service and ancient lipstick on a pig aircraft
    I am still haunted by experiences from 30 years ago but at least I haven’t been ripped off all those decades later.And the few times i did fly them out of last resort situations it was far from a premium experience.Even in the 80s folks talked about how bad they sucked
    Not much has changed except for a nice lounge at lax in delta one and the occasional new a350 which can be found at other airlines for a fraction of the price in miles or revenue
    I pity those that live in Atlanta or any hub Delta has parked themselves in
    RUN/Avoid.Delta and Frontier hel# no

  9. @ Gary — Oh, and to clarify, our two redemptions were in business class. I tend to forget that “economy” anything even exists.

    And my favorite line of all from our friend Brooke — “I explained that the experience is better than anything else.” Where has she been? Apparently she is one of those people that “travel internationally all the time” to…Jamaica and Mexico.

  10. I’m shocked at how much leeway delta has in terms of brand recognition.

    In most ways delta is below many of its peers in FF program, on board service and reliability. They are continuing to cancel flights because of a flawed pilot bidding system.

    They crash jets occasionally in Toronto too.

    It’s purely ego and Americas incessant love of “brands”.

    I’ve had nothing but frustration with DL.

    I will have to give credit to UA. They are now the premium and global carrier of America. Although the ego is starting to go up just like DL.

    They will get a reality check.

  11. How do SkyMiles keep losing value but Ed spends more time planning his next operational meltdown escape trip to Paris? Claude said it can do what Ed does for $30M less.

  12. So she is basing her opinion and you’re spreading it based on the opinion of an anonymous travel expert. It would be helpful to know what caused this sudden outburst.

  13. @Isaac. C’mon man. Just because we like our airshows here in Toronto, doesn’t mean you gotta name us as a Delta perk.

  14. Delta isn’t the only airline that’s massively devalued but they are the worst. What bothers me most is that Ed Bastian either believes or pretends that it’s sh-t doesn’t stink. NY Magazine’steveny puff piece didn’t hurt their image either. But it does some things well. After hours of delays and cancellations at ORD I received a text with food vouchers while waiting for rebooked flights and as soon as the one was cancelled I got a text with vouchers for decent local hotels, round trip rideshares, and breakfast almost immediately And their people are still a little nicer, even on Endeavor.
    I’m Platinum but mainly fly Delta for the NYC- ORD flights I have to take. Free C+ is fine on them- first isn’t much better and of late the app only show the number
    of seats available for upgrades with 1 or 2 but more often no pax listed. I’ve not seen any cheap upgrade offers which they’re probably reserving for those with no or lower status.
    My only spending on Delta cards is on what it takes to use all their perks, which are the most generous of any airline card that I’m aware of. The Alex Plat pays for flights, helps with lounges and its perks also pay the AF.
    Except for companion fare flights I’m a free agent, and most of my cc spend mainly goes on the Bilt or Venture X cards.

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