Spirit’s board almost has to take JetBlue’s offer now unless Frontier comes up with more cash. The federal government then has to make a choice whether to sign off on it in order to kill the JetBlue-American Airlines Northeast Alliance. If they make that offer, JetBlue almost has to take it.
Frontier winds up with divested slots and gates in the Northeast anyway. JetBlue massively overpays. American loses its New York strategy. And the big winners wind up Delta and United, who face less competition for New York (and Boston).