What Do We Know About The Mutated Covid-19 Strain That’s Shutting Down The U.K.?

by Gary Leff

The Netherlands has banned passenger flights from the U.K. in response to reports of a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 that spreads more easily. Planes can bring passengers to the U.K. but must return without passengers. The virus mutation has been detected in Denmark and Australia, but has not been discovered in the U.S. (yet).

This ban isn’t very effective because passengers can still connect between say, London and Amsterdam, through a third country.

But what do we know about this (“N501Y”) mutation – that dates to September – and that has become the dominant strain in the U.K.? Scientists there publicly believe that the mutation makes the virus more transmissible. This view is hardly universal in the U.K.. And it’s not even clear what ‘70% more’ transmissable even means in this context (that natural R0 is 70% higher? here’s one suggestion it increases R0 by 0.4, which would be very bad news indeed but wouldn’t mean a 70% increase).

There’s no reason to believe at this point that the mutation will make reinfection more likely or stand in the way of vaccine effectiveness, though these are the biggest worries.

  • The vaccine teaches your body to recognize many facets of the spike protein. A few mutations to it shouldn’t mitigate vaccine effectiveness. Obviously it’s early to know for sure.

  • Even if mutations in the spike protein mitigate current vaccine formulation effectiveness, it’s relatively easy to alter the formulation using the mRNA platform that both Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna use.

There’s even some indication that the mutation may be “less dangerous” even as it spreads more easily. That’s exactly what you expect from a virus over time. Viruses that kill their hosts don’t survive to spread. More efficient spread and less deadly is the normal course of mutation.

While the U.K. strain hasn’t been identified in the U.S., since it’s over 60% of current cases there and has been spreading for months it’s likely already here and if not will be soon. The ban on travel to the U.S. from U.K. is very far from absolute.

Meanwhile the U.K. and South Africa mutations are being discussed together, but they aren’t the same.

The major concern about the South Africa mutation is that it appears to be spreading primarily among young people. Concern there may be overblown but it raises alarms because ‘greater effect on young people’ is the opposite of what we’ve known so far about the virus.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. I wonder if this covid-19 vaccine will be something all of us will have to take every year similar to the flu shot as covid continues to mutate.

  2. @Joey-No one knows at this point, of course, but as Gary points out, the natural progression of virus mutations is towards less lethal. Thus, it’s possible that covid-19 could eventually become similar the the common flu-an annual event, lethal for a very few, uncomfortable for many, and largely controllable with a vaccine, albeit an annual one.

  3. @Gary @Joey…just a hunch that covid-19 will weaken (as with the UK variation), no virus survives to kill its host. Likewise, over time covid-19 will either be seen as another annual vaccine like the flu or will lose potency to the level of a rhinovirus.

  4. @KimmieA But doesn’t it really depend on how quickly and what percentage of the time it kills its host? If it can spread asymptomatically (as we know it does) and only kills a small percentage of people it infects (also true) then could it not just spread unchecked indefinitely or at least until herd immunity is reached?

  6. Given the closing of all transport routes to the UK in the EU and the the Tier 4 lockdown over Christmas by BJ, I think this is more than just slightly concerning as you make it out to be, Gary. I would imagine this is scarier than any of us even know….seems leaders in the UK and EU know something we don’t.

    This could be the death knell for BA and VS. This has the potential of completely shutting down their entire operations for weeks or months.

    God help us all if the mutation makes the vaccine less effective.

  7. In the future as sociologists, psychologists, economists, historians, doctors, and scientists analyze the coronavirus and effects, it would likely yield incredibly interesting discoveries or revelations about humans, both biological/medical and behavioral/societal.

    The unfortunate part is having to live through it first.

  9. @brizone while published much later than what i wrote, and more verbose, it’s not clear what useful info for most readers is contained in that piece that isn’t here?

  10. How convenient. A strain that has been around since September…all of a sudden is “dangerous” – the same day as vaccines rollout. I see no collusion / manipulation. /s

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