This 1990 United Airlines commercial really nailed why business travel will return in some form, how a ‘phone call and a fax’ doesn’t replace face-to-face business meetings. And yet I stand by my predictions from the start of the pandemic that business travel will be forever changed.
There are trips that used to happen that won’t, trips that do happen with fewer people on them, and the trips that happen won’t happen on the same days or necessarily for as long.
Fundamentally, in person is better and we’re all going to want that. Paul Graham has an excellent framing here, although I don’t think this is the end of the story.
One way to figure out where we'll reach equilibrium is to imagine if face to face were in fact a new invention. How would early adopters take advantage of this amazing new technology?
— Paul Graham (@paulg) February 17, 2022
In-person involves coordination. People are going to get together with friends, people are far more willing to go to restaurants (indoors!) though than they are willing to go back to offices. New York City restaurants were recently back to around 75% of pre-pandemic business while offices were only about a quarter full.
Not everyone wants to go back to office. And if they aren’t in office that’s a constraint on traditional business travel, where you go see someone in their office or you bring a group of people to meet with a group of people in their office.
- We’ve come to realize that Zoom isn’t as good as in-person, but it’s enough of a substitute that it works for some of the travel and meetings we used to do.
- And some of the people who would travel aren’t as necessary to be in the room, plus since we’ve invested in making the leap to learn how to use technology and no longer treat the person ‘calling in’ as only halfway being a participant (plus better tech allows this), some people can stay hoome.
- And how do you do those in-office meetings anyway, even if people return to office it may not be every day. That makes finding dates (coordination) harder.
- Plus when your team isn’t all in-office, your consultants don’t need to be in-office every week either. The traditional Monday morning out, Thursday evening back week doesn’t make sense when employees aren’t all in the office the full week.
Big conventions will come back, in some ways they may be more important for people getting together because they solve a coordination problem. (It’s hard to meet people in their office, but you catch up with them at the conference.) Though these conventions will lag in returning to full strength as companies are slow requiring return to office and return to the road so they take awhile to start participating as much.
There will be more travel that brings teams together. When they don’t work side by side all day in the office, companies still feel the need to foster culture and ‘get everyone on the same page’ so you’ll see company retreats and that involves people traveling to those retreats who don’t work locally.
Most of all coordination takes time. Business travel will see a resurgence as companies return to office. It will see a resurgence as travel restrictions lift where they’re still in place today. Haven’t seen your factory in China in two or three years, you’re going to want to get out there. But after an immediate rush it’s going to settle at a somewhat lower level, and grow from there. And the patterns of who is traveling, for what purpose, and how often are going to be different than before.
Unquestionably in person is better, but how many people travel and how they coordinate that travel is changing. And at the margin Zoom is a better option than it was pre-pandemic and that means some trips get displaced.
Certainly I’ll continue to do talks online that I would have done in person, even though in person is better. That’s because it takes 60-90 minutes, rather than two days with travel time and insuring against delays and missed connections.
Business will be good after pandemic but the question is do the pandemic is over ?
I agree with Gary Leff and the United Airlines commercial regarding the future of business travel. I think face-to-face business meetings are the best. In 2022, the future of business meetings involving travel may take place in an American Express Centurion® Lounge, a part of the AMEX Global Lounge Collection.
If your business is on a budget, you may consider holding your business discussions in an impoverished-looking Priority Pass lounge. Imagine three executives with an AMEX Centurion or Platinum card bringing in six guests to enjoy AMEX lounge benefits while holding their business meeting around a bar serving top-end spirits. Except for the issue of AMEX lounge overcrowding, meeting in an airport lounge could be more productive than having a Zoom teleconference and a more effective way of holding face-to-face business meetings.
I agree with all these points! Makes sense, and I can already see this happening in my own neck of the woods and with my own business travel emerging patterns.
Sounds about right; my younger son is a manager at a big telecom and he hasn’t seen his team (spread over several states) in two years. He has been hiring, firing, mentoring and monitoring people very well from a distance. He is thrilled not to be traveling every month and in fact, he built a small prefab house in his backyard and happily works from there. Meanwhile his corporation has leased out most of the office space in their shiny new headquarters. Of course there are down sides–my very good dry cleaner recently went out of business; between fewer people coming in general and business people needing their suits pressed less in particular he couldn’t make it.
One thing I will say is that compared to in-person work distance relationships definitely can be different. After decades of teaching in a physical post-secondary school I went to a college where pre-pandemic my classes were already entirely online. For most subjects this type of learning works if the students (usually from their 20s to their 60s) can manage their time. And the majority do okay with it. Most of them have other jobs, families, etc. and I suppose there will always be similar distractions for business people–though having more flexibility in work could be very good for their home lives.
One thing I did notice is that people open up much more from a distance–divorces, illnesses, depressions, deaths of relatives, jail time, chaotic home lives, etc. all have been reasons why they’re late with their work. (I try to help them keep on track through these issues, though some are pretty overwhelming.) I expect with remote work such situations will be discussed more often too. So with less face to face contact managers will likely have to become more sensitive to their employees’ stresses.
Business travel will not make anything close to a full comeback. It is a waste of time and money and an employment perk that companies shouldn’t be paying for.
I remember when people said email would replace phone calls and the fax. They haven’t entirely with phone calls (but they have more so with faxes). But since then, there are a growing share of workplace communicators who try to avoid or minimize calls/call length. Email lengths down too? Seems like more and more we are headed closer to an SMS/twitter-message length workplace communication culture than any kind of lengthy communication culture.
If you look at how kids hang out together in groups today with their electronic devices, don’t be surprised that when they come of age as the next generation of business people that they go even further away from long calls and video calls. They even seem to socialize less with each other when in-person in groups.
Corporate overlords will do anything to save a buck.
So whether their corporate peon underlings will be on the road or in the office will entirely depend on which one ends up making more money.
Generalizing about OPM travel is pointless. Some will come back, some will be deemed pointless. Whatever makes moremoney in the end will prevail.
And WeWork fits into the universe how?
I disagree with the concept of “After The Pandemic”.
We are now in a new paradigm. There is no going back.
Tomorrow starts the electronic vaccine passport system, which will allow the WHO to switch on and off your freedom of movement based on their decisions regarding your body.
It’s just a start.
@ Reno — It is truly amazing that WeBroke isn’t bankrupt yet. Just wait…
@ GUWonder — Socializing is so last century…COVID has made me far more anti-social, and I am fine with it. Most social interactions with others are unproductive. And, who faxes anything anymore unless it is required by HIPPA, or some other such “privacy” rules…
@ Bob — Exactly why business travel will never return in full. Why should companies spend money on unnecessary, unproductive activities?
Agree completely. I gave an interview in 2020 where I said it would be 2026-2030 before we saw 2019 levels of business travel again. Some said I was way too pessimistic, but right now that scenario seems overly optimistic.
@gene
It has been clear for years, even before the pandemic, that you are anti social (not to say an idiot) but fortunately most human beings are.not like you
I just came back from a convention in spain that I have been going to for 15 years but skipped the last 2, and people were excited to see each other
I am going to brasil and argentina soon and all my clients are thrilled to see me
Please stay home, nobody misses you anyway
@doug — Wow, amazing that you know me so well. Are you a psychic?
@gene
No need to be a psychic , it is enough just to read your posts from the last year ir so
Anyway, anybody saying that “most social interactions are unproductive” is obviously a repulsive ass, who probably is the only reason his social interactions are unproductive
I’m seeing a lot more bookings of corporate off sites so that people working remotely can meet up once in a while at a central location and socialize. I think those sorts of trips will continue to increase.
@Doug — Stop socializing and get back to work.
Ken A you sound like a commercial for American Express LOL.
Good points though!
Gene your response at 10:53am was hilarious! Better yet: no name calling, politics or conspiracies!
(Looking at you Billy Bob-sorry, the chip Bill Gates put in my head made me say that)
Thanks Gene…..
I think business travel will certainly increase post pandemic . However , I am not so certain that it will increase at a rapid pace or reach 2019 levels .
While face to face May be better for some , there is something to be said for the efficiency of virtual meetings.
One small business owner I know kept their robust travel budget at its 2019 level for 2021 and offered employees a choice – choose to travel as 2019 or any unspent travel budget would be given as a bonus 80% to employees with the remainder of 20% recouped by the company by the company as savings . There was no mandate – totally up to the employee group . The employees for the most part drastically reduced their travel and enjoyed the bonuses . The company had a near record year overall with no layoffs and record year end bonuses as a whole .
Another large employer I know allowed a return to travel with new rules .Coach class only in US – was F over 3 hours before – Premium Economy for international – was J before . The policy was applied to all levels of employees including top management. The requests for authorization to travel fell off a cliff. Once again , the company enjoyed significant savings and had a banner year that was shared with bonuses for all .
If business travel has not come back yet, then why is international business class airfare so expensive (at least with the legacies)?
@Ed, because many of those who are traveling for business now have to travel, so they are not very price sensitive. Lowering the price would not attract so many more business travelers that it would make up the revenue.
There is more to all this than just air travel. Many companies with field employees that traveled weekly have sold off their fleet vehicles, they’ve seen the cost savings and it will take a long time for any normal levels of travel to return. I think companies that are agile enough to get back to face-to-face meetings sooner will prevail over slow-moving companies that are slow to adjust to the new normal. There must be an “Art of War” point in this somehow 🙂
Sales professional here — the dependence on zoom and video calls by many has provided me a great opportunity to steal clients from a number of top competitors. When all else is equal – face to face creates a preference to do business.
Many times, even when all is not equal face to face helps swing the deal.
Go ahead and stay home – I’ll keep taking your clients and making $$$.