Hardliners in the Iranian military overruled its President, who had promised no more attacks on Gulf neighbors. Iran launched fresh drone and missile attacks toward Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE. In the conflict so far, Iran has targeted civilian infrastructure including the Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Kuwait City and and Nakhchivan, Azerbaijan airports.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they would not allow oil out of the region until attacks stop, while President Trump said both that the war “could be over soon” and predicted it would end well before the initial four-week timeframe he had predicted, while also threatening harsher strikes if Iran disrupted oil shipments through the Straits of Hormuz.
The suggestion that the war could be a short one helped bring $100 a barrel oil – up about 50% since hte start of the conflict – back down into the mid-$80s and reversed significant stock market declines on Monday. Moving to more provincial concerns about the travel industry, it’s not clear how Spirit Airlines can emerge from bankruptcy and survive at $100 oil.
Against this backdrop American Airlines has delayed a return of flights to the region.
- Philadelphia – Doha suspended until May 7
- New York JFK – Tel Aviv will not restart until April 23
American Airlines confirms to me,
American Airlines has suspended operations to and from Doha until May 7, 2026 and has delayed the restart of its service to Tel Aviv until April 23, 2026. We are working closely with our partner airlines to assist customers traveling between the Middle East and European cities with service to the U.S during this period.
This is further out than United and Delta currently are scheduling flights, and they’ve historically restarted their flying to the region earlier than American following suspensions over the past two and a half years, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see their flights push as well.
There’s very little airspace currently usable for flights from the U.S. or Europe to the Gulf region.
European safety restrictions (currently only in force through Wednesday but may be extended) restrict operations at any altitude in Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The FAA prohibits flying in the Tehran and Baghdad flight information areas and have a security advisory in place overwater in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
U.S. and European airlines generally cannot overfly Russia due to sanctions and the country closing its airspace in response as a result of its invasion of Ukraine. As a result, flight corridors are very narrow, such as north via the Caucasus and Afghanistan, or south via Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
Ultimately, Iran is a violent theocratic police state that engages in execution, torture, mass surveillance, arbitrary detention, censorship and legal discrimination. It executes people in huge numbers, often after opaque and unfair trials. It kills, tortures and jails protesters, journalists, and dissidents, and retaliates against their families. It uses forced veiling, police harassment, surveillance and prison to control women and girls and imposes discrimination against women in marriage, divorce, inheritance and public life broadly – and tolerates ‘honor violence’ and killing of women by family members. Iran persecutes ethnic and religious minorities as well as LGBT people.
This regime, directly and through its proxies, has repeatedly attacked the United States from Hezbollah’s 1983 Beirut barracks bombing killing 241 and Hezbollah’s 1996 Khobar Towers bombing killing 19 Americans and wounding 372 to killing over 600 U.S. troops in Iraq and, in 2024, killing 3 service members in Jordan in 2024.
Iran sent assassins to kill President Trump, and an Iranian Revolutionary Guard operative who was seeking hits on the President, former President Biden and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was convicted by a federal Jury last week. Another Iranian operative was charged with a plot to kill Trump in November 2024.
This is a dangerous enemy of the United States, the region and world, and its own people. So I don’t lament anything that happens to its leaders, and certainly hope for improvement. At the same time, beyond degrading its nuclear capabilities – and Israel has already suppressed its proxies – it’s not clear how much the United States is able to influence conditions on the ground.
The current offensive has taken out much of the country’s leadership, but we’ve also taken out more ‘moderate’ leaders with whom we’d hoped to negotiate. I wouldn’t have pulled the trigger on this operation. I hope it succeeds, and that the second- and third-order consequences will be limited. On that score I’m less sanguine.
(HT: Marty Paz)
This regime is in its last days one way or the other. It may very well be that it will take more time after this current actions end, but the ball is already rolling on this. Question is just how much more evil and damage it creates until it falls.
They will not “surrender” in the traditional way westerners might think of – they are shiite fanatics, that while have some sort of a rational, when events happen that start to pull on the strings of the deep shiite radicalism they have in their minds they go into to a religious frenzy.
This is for for them the “days of the hidden Mahdi” (the shiite messiah).
So, collapse from the inside of some kind seems to be the way it will happen eventually, rather than external war (unless you nuke them). Just might take time.
Who knows? A lot of Iranians hate this regime, but it has had 47 years to deeply entrench itself. The Revolutionary Guard is powerful and beyond that you have the Basij militia, who are well armed, fanatical and widespread among the people. (Think Imperial Japanese Army and multiply that with drones.)
A ground invasion is impossible–many years ago I crossed Iran by bus from Turkey to Afghanistan and the Caspian to the Gulf and it is a huge and rugged country, and Tehran is a massive city. Replacing the current government with one the U.S. wants brings up the specter of our original sin there, overthrowing a popular government and putting in the brutal Shah back in 1953, and that led directly to the 1979 revolution. Also, the country is 40% minorities and could fragment into endless warring factions, leading to permanent chaos. And unlike Americans, people here remember their history! In Afghanistan someone told me how proud they still were beating Alexander 2300 years ago. How can you overcome that?
All I can say is that, as is typical with this administration, it was an impulsive and poorly planned idea with no thought for the long-consequences or whether it is even doable. It looks like we don’t have the naval assets to keep Hormuz open, and the expense of the whole thing is bleeding us with more massive debt. Now Trump says maybe didn’t mean it was almost over. One man should not have that kind of power, everyone is suffering from him. Except maybe China and Russia, they could be the only winners here.
Very different from last June, where targets were only military. The attacks against civilians (by Iranian drones and missiles) at the allied Gulf cities/states (especially Doha and Dubai) is a major blow to their entire identity of relative safe havens in a rough neighborhood. American and United may have their token flights to DOH and DXB, but their partners, especially Qatar, Emirates, and Etihad are getting crushed by this. Ideally, they will be supported financially by their governments, because if this was a regular business they might go bankrupt. Personally, I wouldn’t route through there anytime soon. We’ll see how this is all going by summer.
Gary. I thought this was a good balanced post.
The Administration has a detailed plan contrary to what some would say. Personally, without have a Presidential brief, I think it is risky, maybe to quote Gary elsewhere “reckless”. I would not have done it (no guts). I am crossing my fingers that it works at least a little bit.
Eponymous laws:
Howes law. “Everyone has a plan that will not work.”
Burns: “Best laid plans of mice and men often go astray.”
O’toole’s commentary on Murphy’s law: “Murphy was an optimist.”
Other Just Saying, there are lots of plans that fall apart. And I sincerely wonder if the current administration’s considered what would happen if this “excursion” (his term) went beyond a few days. Nobody with any sense could have wanted this kind of economic chaos all over the world, and right now they seem to be playing catch up with justifications and repairs. Also, see Tuchman’s book, “The March of Folly” about how throughout history leaders said, “This time it will be different.” It wasn’t.
I do like Mike Tyson’s comment though,
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
@drichards. In other posts, you have identified that a nation building invasion would be an expensive disaster. That has in fact been the case beginning with the Vietnam War. It is not exactly a secret. The Administration should not do that. In my opinion the USA is currently incapable of managing anything. I am not even sure it can manage itself.
However, your comment “All I can say is that, as is typical with this administration, it was an impulsive and poorly planned idea with no thought for the long-consequences or whether it is even doable” is pure emotional snark. It takes away from your otherwise intelligent post.
I follow the news. I do not know what the end game is. You do not either. The Administration has not disclosed its plans for strategic ambiguity. Further, if its enemies in Iran, in Congress, in the press, and elsewhere knew the details of the plan, they would use it against the Administration.
Listen to you: “everyone is suffering from him.” Right, every single person, in the universe, forever, throughout future history. Universal bad hair day for everyone forever.
Other Just Saying, I respect your opinion but the record of this administration, now and in its past incarnation, is not good. “Build a wall” was a throw away line that caught on, and “Mexico will pay for it” was just stupid. “Tariffs are costs paid by other countries (and don’t affect what you pay)” is the sort of thing a person with no knowledge of economics would say. The pandemic was utterly mishandled, and on and on. (Remember DOGE?) Regarding “enemies” in the press, Congress, etc., there are many of us disgusted with this bunch, but we all want the country to succeed. Having crackpot medical advice or calling other nations “s**tholes” while sucking up to Russia and betraying the Ukraine, or cutting desperately needed aid to the poorest of the world are terrible ways to help America.
It is government by impulse, with a laugh track. Stop producing cents and then figure out how to manage that, when every other country that did a similar thing took a few years to make the transition. A small example, but typical. And yes, everyone (except the richest) is suffering from higher energy prices, massive disruptions to trade and serious uncertainty about the future. I did not say forever, but starting a war on one’s “gut feelings” without even a coherent explanation is no way to run a country. So much for the emperor of the Board of Peace.
@drrichard — I thought it was Bored of Peace… (clearly He was…)
@drrichard. Snark data dump. Your TDS makes you so emotional you cannot focus. If the Administration stops Iran from sending explosives and proxies into Israel, killing civilian Americans for sport, and obtaining nuclear weapons, it is a good thing, not a bad thing. Are you rooting for the Administration to fail because of TDS?
Sorry, I would give you a longer response, but I suddenly had a strong desire to watch a James Bond movie [or maybe Matt Helm]. Beautiful hot woman, simple plots. Much better use of my time.
BTW, Gary, no more bikini airline posts. I am shallow and love them.
How can you overcome that? Drop a bomb on their head. As that left winger Stalin said . . .
@1990: Iran did not only attack military targets last June. That is a wholesale lie. They targeted cities and residential neighborhoods. Don’t fall for their propaganda. And @Gary: I know you put “moderates” in quotes for a reason. You know there is no negotiation with the current Islamic regime. That MSM entertains such a notion is sheer lunacy. The “moderates” believe and do the same thing, they just don’t say it as openly.