The Amex And Chase Points Playbook Is Changing — Some Programs Are Rising, Others Are Getting Riskier

Comments

1. Still can’t believe I’m locked out of a United card because Chase rules won’t let me. What a ridiculous and badly executed decision.

2. I had reached out about advance Hyatt points bookings and was told that if the points price changes I am responsible for difference after booking. See below from Hyatt concierge:

   For Hyatt locations, if points rooms are available, you may book up to 2 advanced point reservations at one location for the same dates.

   If you have insufficient points in your account to cover a stay, you will need to ensure that the points are in your account at least 7 days prior to arrival to avoid being charged the standard daily room rate for your reservations.

   While your reservations are booked with insufficient points, we are not able to guarantee a suite using suite upgrade awards. Once you have the necessary number of points for the reservations, we can check and see if suites are available.

   We are not able to book advanced point reservations if you have the points to redeem within your account.

   We must book these stays on your behalf; you cannot book with advanced points online.

   If you book on advanced points, and the point amount changes, you will be responsible for the additional points when you fund the reservation.

   Please reach out for assistance, we would be happy to help if you would like to book an advanced point reservation on your behalf.

3. Amex could be a “bro” and end that excise tax on US carrier transfers…

4. ‘Bilt has the most valuable points in the market, and it’s not even close. And Bilt Palladium Card (See rates and fees) has the strongest points-earning for actual spend of any card.’

   Frequent Miler (FM) claims that the card is only worth $600 in first year value, which puts it down in the pits of all travel cards.

   However, it is easy to prove that the first year value is around $3,000.

   FM refuses to admit that their methodolgy is broken which makes one wonder if they are taking kickbacks from competing card issuers or just beligerent and immature in not admitting their errors.

5. @L3 – Frequent Miler’s frame isn’t looking for cards that are good for actual ongoing spend like most people do. I will agree that the highest leverage return comes from spending that earns a card’s initial bonus. But for spend that doesn’t do that, Bilt Palladium is better than anything I’ve seen before that doesn’t involve buying or reloading stored value cards.

6. @gary: And yet, by their own formula, Bilt is the most valuable card they have ever seen.

   It is so embarrassing for them to get it wrong on Bilt 2.0’s release, only to be hoist by their own petard by third parties. They should admit their errors now as their credibility is rapidly eroding.

7. If the point requirement changes for a hotel on a point advance, and you want to apply a tsu, you have to pay the additional points because it’s the same as a date change per my Hyatt Concierge.

   This happened with category changes to me before.

   On another note, do you visit the Cap One lounge at JFK in T4 if you are flying American (T8)? I have Flagship access but wondering whether it’s worth the schlep.

8. @ Gary — Used up 800,000 Hyatt points booking 26 nights at 5 Park Hyatts and 1 UB Collection with suite upgrades confirmed for all nights. A measly 6,000 points and zero suite upgrades remain! Now, I hope the devaluation isn’t as horrible as expected (at least not for this first year or two).

   Something that I don’t believe that you’ve picked up on is that United is offering some great discounts on award tickets (eg, SFO-LHR one-way new Polaris — the one with the $500 Studio seat that no one in their right mind would buy — for 68,000 miles). They have (so far) excellent dynamic prcing. I am quite pleased! United’s seemingly improved award pricing may hep Chase maintain the value of its URs.

   Delta has also been having some fantastic J award pricing of late on routes to Asia. I expect we will see more great international J awards as Delta acquires more aircraft and adds more routes. The ony US J airline seat I truly am excited to fly is DLs A350-900. Great J suites on a great plane. Nothing offered by AA or UA compares. Delta’s seemingly improved award pricing may help AMEX maintain the value of its MRs. I never dreamt I would say this, but I may even transfer some MR to DL.

9. Bilt is a dumpster fire. Might have the most valuable points, but their useless CS and constant issues when it comes to making rent/mortgage payments is enough to direct my spend elsewhere.

10. This is the 2nd year in a row, that I’m getting outsized value for my Choice points. I’ve been sitting on a boatload since the whole Radisson takeover, and just never saw any good redemption options to the places I was visiting. That changed last year with Copenhagen for their beer week and Mikkeller beer fest. Doing the same exact thing against this year. Their options in the US are largely functional: IE: You need a room in an small town somewhere with no major brand footprints. (Which is how I kept my points from expiring for so long) However, for Europe – They have some excellent properties in great locations. Worth checking out.

    I wish more companies would add them as a transfer partner.

11. @L3 — $3,000? Before you were saying, ‘$2,000,’ and you were wrong then, too. Frequent Miler has ample credibility, and DoC is best when evaluating these card products, sign-up bonus or otherwise, without preference or favor, often providing public-best offers, no referrals, no commissions, etc. I’m a huge fan of Gary, but VFTW is not the most objective source for this, either.

    @RC — I’ve been a harsh critic because 1.0 to 2.0 is a completely different product, especially as it relates to rent payments; however, regardless of the growing pains, the customer service has improved since launch (agreed; it should have been better from the start). Users asked for notifications of transactions; now we can get emails/texts for each purchase; to me, that was a major improvement, because I can catch a problem early, instead of letting it simmer for weeks. My concern is long-term viability, because after February 2027, a lot of users will downgrade or cancel because they won’t have a 50K SUB to justify the high AF. Using expiring Bilt Cash is another concern, especially when they promote new redemptions, like Blacklane and Blade, but can’t seem to seal the deal (months and months of waiting). Time will tell…

12. I have been going back and forth on keeping these premium cards. I’ve been in this game for 17 years but it’s just getting more and more difficult. I’m starting to consider using the following

    1. Verizon card for restaurants, gas, and groceries 4% in Verizon dollars. This can be applied to my monthly bill which is basically cash back at the end of the day.

    2. AMEX blue cash preferred for groceries (until cap is hit) and for streaming.

    3. One or two airline credit cards for the bag benefit since that pays for itself with 1 round trip a year.

    Lounges are overrated these days but I still like them.

    I’m thinking of keeping Amex Platinum but getting rid of CSR as it went from the best premium card to a coupon book for things I’ll never use like Stubhub.

13. @1990: Google ‘Using Frequent Miler’s Valuation Method, The Bilt Palladium Card Is The Most Valuable Card They Have Ever Seen, Even With Zero Housing Spend’

    and tell us where the numbers are wrong.

14. I agree with Jared – the golden era of lounges has been over for quite a while. I would much rather have a $12 beer at an airport bar than play the credit card game any more.

15. @L3 — You‘ve been copying and pasting that everywhere you go (FM, too); it doesn’t prove anything. You also went on a Tim-Dunn-style back-and-forth with Stephen Pepper over at FM (on their recent Bilt Palladium & Citi Strata Elite Priority Passes post).

    The main points: BILT Cash is not worth what you think it is, no matter how you subjectively value it. Stephen was right that your math is unrealistic. Your $2K valuation requires Palladium card members spending $80K annually; for your absurd $3K valuation… that’d be more like $120K. (Most of us can make so much more on SUBs than that.) Importantly, these limited niche credits like $10 on Grubhub/Lyft/Walgreens won’t cut it (you’ll run out of things to redeem on). Ultimately, FM is right to value such internal credits (including with other issuers like Amex, Chase, Citi, etc.) because they are inherently restrictive and difficult to use. Many of us who maximize Palladium are gonna have waaay too much BILT Cash to use at the end of the year (and then it’ll expire.)

    If you are really actually connected to Ankur’s team, get the freakin’ Blacklane and Blade credits live, now. C’mon, man. Enough of the bait-and-switch.

16. @ L3 — OK, I took the bait and read the Chalk Report article. The article is a bit over the top in stating the Palladium card is worth $3,000 per year. It is clearly worth > $495 for the SUB + year 1 benefits, probably worth > $495 for year 2+ beneifts, but not $2k – $3k/year. The $200 per 6 months + $100 per month hotel credits sound great, but the devil is in the details. Things like Grubhub, Bilt Dining, gopuff, PriorityPass, Blade, etc are of zero value to me. Once I use the hotel credits andpossibly the Lyft credits, maybe I will find the card useful. Regarding putting a bunch of spend on the card, I’ll pass as long as there are stil plenty of churning options (ALWAYS the most valuable way to earn points) and as long as there is still strong value in earning elite status credits with Delta, Hyatt, Atmos, etc. on other co-brand cards (becoming more questionable, especially Hyatt).

17. @1990: ‘ Your $2K valuation requires Palladium card members spending $80K annually;’

    Wrong. You didn’t do the math correctly. You are confusing points and dollars. This is a 3x card on the first 25k. So spend required to get good value is comparable with AMEX T and Chase SR, but the return higher.

    And it is worth $3,000+ in the first year. see the article.

    Yoiu copied and pasted FT’s errors instead of thinking through the problem yourself. That won’t cut it – unless you are their bot.

    Google ‘Using Frequent Miler’s Valuation Method, The Bilt Palladium Card Is The Most Valuable Card They Have Ever Seen, Even With Zero Housing Spend’

    and tell us where the numbers are wrong.

18. @ L3 — The Palldium card is NOT worth $3,000 in the first year, unless you take lyft to Walgreens, order gopuff and grubhub every day from your overpriced Bilt hotel room.

19. @L3 — @Gene gets it, too. Churning is still king.

    As I’ve said before, Palladium year 1 with 50K SUB is ‘great’ (not for rent, because, it’s no longer 1.0 anymore; but, simply as a 2-3x card, up to $25K). Yet, year 2 $495 AF is hard to justify, mostly because BILT Cash is not easy enough to use to overcome the fee.

    Specifically, on hotels via their program (which is a large portion of ‘the math’), most users won’t do 12x the 2-night minimum (24 night per year) for the $100 per month hotel credits, regardless of the 2x $200 credit. Not to mention, rarely is hotel status honored when booking via third party (don’t you dare pretend their ‘Home Away from Home’ is worth anything… it’s a joke.)

    You still ignored Blacklane and Blade… promoted, but still not live. What’s going on there?

20. @Gene: You can’t just deny the conclusions of the paper. We are long past that point. You have to justify your assertions. Your unsupported assertions are wrong, worthless, and rhetorically on a par with that of a 12-year old.

    You need to construct your own valuation, explaining every single penny.

    We look forward to seeing the results of your work (although I suspect we shan’t).

21. @1990: Most of what you say is not Bilt-specific. Or relevant (I valued the card, churn as a strategy is a separate issue). And delays with Blacklane aren’t relevant to a going-forward valuation that someone can use.

    Still looking for your item-by-item valuation of the card, as I did using FM’s valuation method.

    Or are you blindly accepting their valuation of $600?

22. @L3 — So, more projection. Feels very @Mike P, to me. (As-in, quick to claim false victory, non-answers, the back-at-ya’s, logical fallacies, etc.) Let’s see $600… $500 for the 50K SUB. $100 for everything else, because it’s hard to actually use. That’s my personal year-1 math. You feel free to continue to whine at Stephen (FM) over a spreadsheet. One way or another, BILT will disappoint next after December 2026, when all our excess BILT Cash expires, and again, after February 2027, when the renewal AFs hit.

23. @ L3 — My assertion is simple — My time is too valuable to track all the Bilt nonsense. Maybe if I had nothing else to do, it would be worthwhile.

24. I thought once you combined Citi points you had to use them within 60 days? Or within 60 days of cancelling the card in which they were earned.

    So then why combine them as a default or without a specific use? If I do then I’m likely to forget how many points were earned by a given card and that could cause problems if/when cancelling a card.

25. For American Express, Cathay Pacific has recently been devalued as a transfer partner.
    “ANA was a unique offering but that’s been devalued.”
    @Gary, how was ANA devalued as a transfer partner?

26. Still waiting for ROVE shopping miles to post – months after the transaction I got emails saying “we have contacted the partner and awaiting response”. So I consider Rove a bogus program as my Rakutan points and Chase rebates generally post very quickly after transactions.

    Similarly I have no need for BILT and their mortgage and spending games. Rather have 2x points on everyday spend from Cap1, Amex and Citi – no games no nonsense. YMMV

    My prediction is that lounges will be the next big thing to tank and Amex Plat soon after. Nobody wants to wait in line to access crappy food. UA Polaris is already feeling the pain.