Spirit Airlines is out of business. That helps the two next-most vulnerable airlines, Frontier and JetBlue. Frontier is the other major ultra-low cost airline and the two competed on over 100 routes. JetBlue and Spirit were the major airlines in Fort Lauderdale, and JetBlue has already announced new routes there to take advantage of Spirit’s departure.
But speculation about JetBlue’s future has been rampant. They’ve lost money for six years straight and they’re under a mountain of debt. Three weeks ago JetBlue founder Dave Neeleman warned that airline could go bankrupt this year and said that nobody would likely buy the whole thing (outside of chapter 11) because of the $9 billion they owe.
There are a number of stories about an imminent bankruptcy filing by JetBlue, as fuel prices have surged during the conflict with Iran. That’s fake, and the excellent Jon Ostrower has seen someone pushing fake information on this for three weeks.
On April 17, I got a text message from an unknown 202 number trying to plant a false story about an impending JetBlue bankruptcy filing. Someone is running some shenanigans. https://t.co/8WJMzhJfGf pic.twitter.com/yxvC5Ht7pW
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) May 6, 2026
JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty says they are not contemplating a chapter 11 filing this year which of course begs the question about what 2027 looks like for them based on how macro conditions develop. They haven’t made money in six years.
Between long-term losses, high debt, and increased fuel expense – plus a weak market position in New York, a weakened position in Boston as Delta used their inability to simultaneously grow in New York and defend Boston during their American Airines partnership (hence the logic of buying Spirit’s planes and pilots in the first place), they’re in a difficult position.
Their credit rating has been downgraded to CCC+ (by Fitch) and they could be looking at a pre-tax loss greater than $1 billion this year.
However, they ended the first quarter with $2.4 billion of liquidity, excluding an undrawn $600 million revolver, and more than $6 billion of unencumbered assets. They secured a $500 million aircraft-backed financing commitment with an option to increase it by $250 million.
And their 2025 10-K shows scheduled debt maturities of:
- $755 million in 2026
- $411 million in 2027
- $516 million in 2028
- $1.768 billion in 2029.
That could forestall any balloon payment-forced filing until 2029, giving them time to turn around their finances. They’re a weak player with huge challenges, but I don’t see why a filing by 2027 is significantly more likely than not.
Of course, macro economic conditions and the direction of oil prices could change this.
I like jetBlue. A lot. NYC-based. Most legroom in Economy. Live TV. Free WiFi. Mint. I want them to last; I’d prefer if they didn’t merge, and I certainly don’t want them to collapse like Spirit. The micro isn’t as bad as Spirit; $2.4 billion in liquidity is decent; their option to increase financing is also a good sign.
And yet, Gary’s right: “macro economic conditions and the direction of oil prices could change this.” There’s a huge difference between the market price of oil (which is basically ‘cuckoo bananas’ these days) and the actual supply (which could be strained because of the indefinite impact of #47’s war of bad choices in Iran). That said, I fully expect gas prices to dip in October, only to skyrocket after the midterms (classic market manipulation because big oil likes R’s).
And a Chapter 11 filing doesn’t mean the end of the airline since practically every US airline (including AA, DL and UA) have been through Chapter 11. That means JetBlue is years away from shutting down like Spirit if it even ever gets to that point.
B6 is fragile but their CEO just said based on actual facts that they have the liquidity to make it through the year.
There are clearly people that want to see B6 fail – in part because of the insecurity at those other companies in their own strategic plans and believe that trying to convince the world that B6 is fragile will convince enough people to book away from them.
Let’s hope that B6 can find some success at FLL in a market where they can be the largest, something they have not been able to do in NYC or BOS
@Tim Dunn — If anything, B6 should take on more debt to buy Spirit’s distressed assets on-the-cheap. Fire-sale! (Wait, FLL? @Parker, won’t that threaten DL’s T2 ‘stronghold’? Bah…)
B6 will be headed to Chapter 11 if not in 2026, in early 2027. The airline doesn’t make money and it doesn’t run well. B6 won’t find success in FLL where, even without NK, fares are as cheap as the flyers coming and going. The future of B6 is a carve out across UA and AA.
My sense is that one of the US5 will make a play for JetBlue before Chapter 11. I’m not sure these new ex-Spirit routes are really going to work out. JetBlue doesn’t need passengers. It needs passengers it can make money on and it’s late to the premium race.
Unless the new routes work out or JetBlue can find an acquirer, I think it will be curtains for them.
The departure of Spirit from the playing field clearly improves the viability of Jet Blue. The reason airlines created Ticket categories such as Blue Basic was to compete with Spirit (and to a lesser extent Frontier). Now Jet Blue can reduce the number of seats they sell at Blue Basic pricing. Their passenger load will increase and a larger share will be sold at higher ticket prices. Jet Blue should be fine for the next few years if they don’t allow expenses to get out of control.
@George Nathan Romey — I’d argue they are not ‘late’… jetBlue actually innovated before Big 3 on narrow-body ‘premium’ segment with Mint, both the original and the newer suites on neo/XLR.
On transcon, I’d rather enjoy lie-flat Mint than AA’s 737 recliner for a 5-6 hour redeye. Think FLL/MIA-LAX/SFO. And, on international routes, unlike SW, which @Tim Dunn, @Mike Hunt seem to think is going to become ‘premium,’ start TATL service, etc., jetBlue actually got it done, and has been doing so for years now (to Europe since 2021). For 2026, there are 13 routes, daily and seasonal from JFK and BOS to LHR, LGW, CDG, AMS, DUB, EDI, MAD, MXP, BCN.
On the other hand, encouraging the marginal players to close down in an orderly fashion and liquidate assets while there’s still value left may make more sense than letting them continue shambling to zero.
The future of airlines is focusing exclusively on profitable routes and profitable passengers. For the rest of us, it may be time to start looking at travel alternatives.
@Denver Refugee — But, but… the ‘shambling’ is so fun!
Profitability isn’t everything. While transportation isn’t as essential as say healthcare or housing, certain essential air service is still worthwhile and a public asset, even if not always as profitable as one would hope. Just saying, there are more stakeholders here than merely the shareholders.
What’s really happening is a classic airline death spiral: high fuel costs, competitive pricing pressure, and a balance sheet that’s deteriorating faster than their brand equity. Their cash burn is accelerating while competitors with better networks and lower costs are pulling away.
The real question isn’t whether they’ll file Chapter 11 (they won’t in the near term), but whether they can survive long enough to see the next cycle. My money’s on a significant restructuring within 18 months – likely involving fleet simplification, network rationalization, and probably a new CEO who can make the tough cuts that Hayes has been unwilling to make.
@Mike Hunt — As our resident conservative/libertarian “economist” *wink wink*… you must know that less competition, less options for consumers, less jobs… all not ‘great’ (again). In the aggregate, think of the hundreds of thousands of people that may simply stay home, not travel, not attend that conference, not close that deal, not go on vacation, not spend money, all now that one low-cost option is gone. Then think how much worse that’ll be if multiple carriers evaporate. Seems like a net negative for the economy/country. Anyhoo… we’re just commenters on a website. Feed the troll?
I’d argue that in 2026, said “essential air service” is in the realm of the freight carriers (Amazon, UPS, FedEx, DHL, etc.) rather than passenger airlines.
Again, people can adapt, goods need to move.
We can “attend that conference” (for the ones worth attending – I’ve seen too many conference talks that should have been a whitepaper or even a blog post) and “close that deal” over Teams these days.
People will still “go on vacation” and “spend money,” but in their own local economies. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing.