Spirit Airlines is out of business. That helps the two next-most vulnerable airlines, Frontier and JetBlue. Frontier is the other major ultra-low cost airline and the two competed on over 100 routes. JetBlue and Spirit were the major airlines in Fort Lauderdale, and JetBlue has already announced new routes there to take advantage of Spirit’s departure.
But speculation about JetBlue’s future has been rampant. They’ve lost money for six years straight and they’re under a mountain of debt. Three weeks ago JetBlue founder Dave Neeleman warned that airline could go bankrupt this year and said that nobody would likely buy the whole thing (outside of chapter 11) because of the $9 billion they owe.
There are a number of stories about an imminent bankruptcy filing by JetBlue, as fuel prices have surged during the conflict with Iran. That’s fake, and the excellent Jon Ostrower has seen someone pushing fake information on this for three weeks.
On April 17, I got a text message from an unknown 202 number trying to plant a false story about an impending JetBlue bankruptcy filing. Someone is running some shenanigans. https://t.co/8WJMzhJfGf pic.twitter.com/yxvC5Ht7pW
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) May 6, 2026
JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty says they are not contemplating a chapter 11 filing this year which of course begs the question about what 2027 looks like for them based on how macro conditions develop. They haven’t made money in six years.
Between long-term losses, high debt, and increased fuel expense – plus a weak market position in New York, a weakened position in Boston as Delta used their inability to simultaneously grow in New York and defend Boston during their American Airines partnership (hence the logic of buying Spirit’s planes and pilots in the first place), they’re in a difficult position.
Their credit rating has been downgraded to CCC+ (by Fitch) and they could be looking at a pre-tax loss greater than $1 billion this year.
However, they ended the first quarter with $2.4 billion of liquidity, excluding an undrawn $600 million revolver, and more than $6 billion of unencumbered assets. They secured a $500 million aircraft-backed financing commitment with an option to increase it by $250 million.
And their 2025 10-K shows scheduled debt maturities of:
- $755 million in 2026
- $411 million in 2027
- $516 million in 2028
- $1.768 billion in 2029.
That could forestall any balloon payment-forced filing until 2029, giving them time to turn around their finances. They’re a weak player with huge challenges, but I don’t see why a filing by 2027 is significantly more likely than not.
Of course, macro economic conditions and the direction of oil prices could change this.
I like jetBlue. A lot. NYC-based. Most legroom in Economy. Live TV. Free WiFi. Mint. I want them to last; I’d prefer if they didn’t merge, and I certainly don’t want them to collapse like Spirit. The micro isn’t as bad as Spirit; $2.4 billion in liquidity is decent; their option to increase financing is also a good sign.
And yet, Gary’s right: “macro economic conditions and the direction of oil prices could change this.” There’s a huge difference between the market price of oil (which is basically ‘cuckoo bananas’ these days) and the actual supply (which could be strained because of the indefinite impact of #47’s war of bad choices in Iran). That said, I fully expect gas prices to dip in October, only to skyrocket after the midterms (classic market manipulation because big oil likes R’s).
And a Chapter 11 filing doesn’t mean the end of the airline since practically every US airline (including AA, DL and UA) have been through Chapter 11. That means JetBlue is years away from shutting down like Spirit if it even ever gets to that point.
B6 is fragile but their CEO just said based on actual facts that they have the liquidity to make it through the year.
There are clearly people that want to see B6 fail – in part because of the insecurity at those other companies in their own strategic plans and believe that trying to convince the world that B6 is fragile will convince enough people to book away from them.
Let’s hope that B6 can find some success at FLL in a market where they can be the largest, something they have not been able to do in NYC or BOS
@Tim Dunn — If anything, B6 should take on more debt to buy Spirit’s distressed assets on-the-cheap. Fire-sale! (Wait, FLL? @Parker, won’t that threaten DL’s T2 ‘stronghold’? Bah…)
B6 will be headed to Chapter 11 if not in 2026, in early 2027. The airline doesn’t make money and it doesn’t run well. B6 won’t find success in FLL where, even without NK, fares are as cheap as the flyers coming and going. The future of B6 is a carve out across UA and AA.
My sense is that one of the US5 will make a play for JetBlue before Chapter 11. I’m not sure these new ex-Spirit routes are really going to work out. JetBlue doesn’t need passengers. It needs passengers it can make money on and it’s late to the premium race.
Unless the new routes work out or JetBlue can find an acquirer, I think it will be curtains for them.
The departure of Spirit from the playing field clearly improves the viability of Jet Blue. The reason airlines created Ticket categories such as Blue Basic was to compete with Spirit (and to a lesser extent Frontier). Now Jet Blue can reduce the number of seats they sell at Blue Basic pricing. Their passenger load will increase and a larger share will be sold at higher ticket prices. Jet Blue should be fine for the next few years if they don’t allow expenses to get out of control.
@George Nathan Romey — I’d argue they are not ‘late’… jetBlue actually innovated before Big 3 on narrow-body ‘premium’ segment with Mint, both the original and the newer suites on neo/XLR.
On transcon, I’d rather enjoy lie-flat Mint than AA’s 737 recliner for a 5-6 hour redeye. Think FLL/MIA-LAX/SFO. And, on international routes, unlike SW, which @Tim Dunn, @Mike Hunt seem to think is going to become ‘premium,’ start TATL service, etc., jetBlue actually got it done, and has been doing so for years now (to Europe since 2021). For 2026, there are 13 routes, daily and seasonal from JFK and BOS to LHR, LGW, CDG, AMS, DUB, EDI, MAD, MXP, BCN.
On the other hand, encouraging the marginal players to close down in an orderly fashion and liquidate assets while there’s still value left may make more sense than letting them continue shambling to zero.
The future of airlines is focusing exclusively on profitable routes and profitable passengers. For the rest of us, it may be time to start looking at travel alternatives.
@Denver Refugee — But, but… the ‘shambling’ is so fun!
Profitability isn’t everything. While transportation isn’t as essential as say healthcare or housing, certain essential air service is still worthwhile and a public asset, even if not always as profitable as one would hope. Just saying, there are more stakeholders here than merely the shareholders.
What’s really happening is a classic airline death spiral: high fuel costs, competitive pricing pressure, and a balance sheet that’s deteriorating faster than their brand equity. Their cash burn is accelerating while competitors with better networks and lower costs are pulling away.
The real question isn’t whether they’ll file Chapter 11 (they won’t in the near term), but whether they can survive long enough to see the next cycle. My money’s on a significant restructuring within 18 months – likely involving fleet simplification, network rationalization, and probably a new CEO who can make the tough cuts that Hayes has been unwilling to make.
@Mike Hunt — As our resident conservative/libertarian “economist” *wink wink*… you must know that less competition, less options for consumers, less jobs… all not ‘great’ (again). In the aggregate, think of the hundreds of thousands of people that may simply stay home, not travel, not attend that conference, not close that deal, not go on vacation, not spend money, all now that one low-cost option is gone. Then think how much worse that’ll be if multiple carriers evaporate. Seems like a net negative for the economy/country. Anyhoo… we’re just commenters on a website. Feed the troll?
I’d argue that in 2026, said “essential air service” is in the realm of the freight carriers (Amazon, UPS, FedEx, DHL, etc.) rather than passenger airlines.
Again, people can adapt, goods need to move.
We can “attend that conference” (for the ones worth attending – I’ve seen too many conference talks that should have been a whitepaper or even a blog post) and “close that deal” over Teams these days.
People will still “go on vacation” and “spend money,” but in their own local economies. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing.
1990
no, B6 should not take on debt to buy anything from NK – because there really isn’t much to buy.
B6 moved quickly to take over gates at FLL that NK used; the airport’s agreements don’t allow airlines to hold onto gates they don’t use.
As for planes, B6 has been underutilizing its fleet and will certainly move assets out of the NE where they don’t do well esp. against DL.
Mike Hunt,
fuel prices are down today based on hopes of a settlement with Iran. Let’s see if it actually materializes but there is a lot of pressure from a lot of parties to get the Strait reopened.
Who knows if that will fix the underlying problems.
While it will take months for global fuel supplies to be rebalanced, it is possible for fall capacity cuts to be reduced with NK (and the little bit of ULCC capacity they represented) out of the market and stronger price discipline.
Airline stocks are very strong today and the broader market acts like nothing has really happened which means alot of people will still spend money.
@1990 DL’s stronghold of delayed flights to hubs where I can wait for my next delayed flight…LOL!
I’d be okay if DL expanded in FLL…but they won’t. They are focused on MIA…sort of.
Parker,
I know you are being partially sarcastic but DL’s on-time is not at risk due to the pilot staffing issue; DL has cancelled flights far enough in advance for flights to operate normally.
and this has happened at worst a couple days per week even in weeks when it has been problematic.
and I don’t think DL will try to grow FLL including to the Caribbean or Latin America but I could be wrong.
@Denver Refugee — Please enjoy your 3,000 mile… transcontinental walk from the Atlantic to the Pacific… and swim in the Pacific to Hawaii… and, your thriving ‘local’ economy, the envy of Norilsk.
@Tim Dunn — Sounds like, no matter what, Delta wins, huh?
@Parker — Countless FLL-ATL/JFK-XXX itineraries in my flight history.
Safe to say it’s probable that thanks to the Biden Administration JetBlue is still here….the other side of the coin in keeping the two airlines separate to protect the traveling public (I E compete with each other) is it also spread out the risk of an airline failure disrupting air travel. Had they merged with Spirit their combined woes most likely would not have survived Trumps war. We would be down two airlines instead of one.
Lol. This is wish casting from Tim Dunn. Why would JetBlue step away from being the largest gate holder in Logan where gate space is super valuable? It’s not like JFK where they hit a wall. TATL has actually been very successful for them in BOS. They had 27 gates before and just got two of Spirit’s gates (B40 and B39 became C23A and C23B). We’ll see what happens to Spirit’s other two gates now (B38 and B37).
In fact, the reporting from JonNYC this week showed that JetBlue is increasing their BOS base slightly and their FLL/SJU bases significantly and cutting MCO/EWR significantly and JFK slightly.
B6 is still fighting but they are considerably smaller than DL.
They (and a whole lot of other people) keep hoping that DL will run out of gates and won’t be able to grow any more – but Massport keeps managing to find places for DL to board and deplane including putting domestic flights in Terminal E.
all the real estate in the world doesn’t mean anything if they can’t make money using them – and every airport in the US has some sort of gate usage requirements.
and BOS, 1990, is a much smaller part of DL’s operation than it is for B6 which means that DL can keep putting the pressure on – and that strategy clearly is working.
B6 doesn’t have the bandwidth to fight multiple battles and it is far from a given that FLL will work.
and let’s not forget that they underperform at JFK – and the best solutions that are being discussed (others might be taking place) is to lease slots to UA which will tu rn around and add flights in some of B6′ top markets.
B6 needs to find “moat” markets which it can dominate; it does not have that in NYC or BOS and hasn’t had them anywhere in a quarter century.
Trying to compete in the same large markets as other carriers just doesn’t work; it has nothing to do with just Delta but DL has proven that it is giving no one any space in DL hubs, of which LGA, JFK and BOS are hubs.
I like flying JetBlue, which I will do again in two days. I would prefer all of the rest of the USA airlines go bankrupt first so that the hate JetBlue first crowd gets some feedback. I know that that won’t happen that way but I can hope. Those of us who like JetBlue can help by flying JetBlue whenever possible. I wish that they would fly the BUF to LAX nonstop again. It was always full but there was no wasted time flying through a hub. One thing to note: if the demise of Spirit causes the price of tickets to rise, that will bring in more revenue for other airlines including JetBlue.
@Tim Dunn — Woah, I wouldn’t under-sell Delta’s stronghold at BOS; the recent investments in the new SkyClub and, of course, the DeltaOne lounge, are impressive. I enjoyed those in December. And, their TATL operations aren’t nothin’ either. Of course, the BOS-LAX transcon is nicer when lie-flat, which, I believe, these days, B6 only offers via Mint service (maybe DL should get the XLR lie-flat approved, then bring ’em back for that!)
@jns — Right on!! I feel like I’m one of the only folks (other than you) who still loves B6 on here, and I want them to survive and get even better. Have you made it to their Blue House at JFK T5 yet?
I’m not underselling BOS, 1990.
I am just saying that DL’s most competitive hubs including BOS, JFK and SEA as well as LAX are much smaller parts of DL’s network than JFK and BOS are for B6.
I just saw that UA is starting LAX-FLL which is a primary route for B6 and one that DL has had service in. NK used to fly the route.
Hard to believe that DL will sit by and allow UA to grow in Florida.
let’s see how it pans out but B6′ biggest threat is not any single carrier like it is in JFK or BOS but multiple big 4 carriers that all want a piece of B6.
and kind of hard to think that UA thinks that knocking off B6 will make it easier for UA to acquire B6 given that B6 is increasing the number of routes it competes w/ UA and UA is reciprocating.
@Tim Dunn — No idea where this goes. Anything is possible. I’m sure we’ll be following along, together. As for FL-CA, I prefer B6 because Mint is superior to the ‘premium’ competition; I’ve also taken FLL-SFO on UA when they use the 757 with 2-2 lie-flat up-front, which is a treat (occasionally, they use the same 757 for EWR-FLL, but it’s rare, usually just 737); and, I’ve taken Delta on FLL-ATL-SFO on a combination of 757 and 737, all recliners, which is less convenient/comfortable. Just as with NY-CA, FL-CA is another should-be premium market, but it rarely is considered so, except for AA’s MIA-LAX, occasionally, like during the pandemic, when ‘Flagship’ 787/772/773 were used.
I think people are giving way too much weight to Neeleman’s remarks concerning the odds of a B6 bankruptcy and/or merger. First he has a pretty bad track record with airline predictions. Two, he’s not a neutral player. Breeze is a competitor. Three, most importantly, to acquire or not to acquire/merge with Jet Blue is not a question that’s decided by the finance department at United (or any other airline), not even the CEO gets the final word. I would like to remind readers of the not so distant past, 2008, when Continental’s CEO Larry Kellner, the former CFO of Continental balked at the idea of buying United for the exact same reason – too much debt. The Wall Street guys connected to board members at both airlines had Kellner tossed and replaced him with merger amenable Jeff Smisek who promptly shepherded the deal to completion pleasing his Wall Street pay masters. Vanguard and Black Rock who hold large stakes at both companies will not be pleased with the idea of their JetBlue shares getting wiped out or heavily diluted in a Chapter 11 reorganization. Carl Icahn and Joanna Geraghty (B6 CEO) both major shareholders, would not be happy with a B6 Chapter 11 either. Neeleman’s insider knowledge may be entirely accurate regarding the opinions of the United bean counters, and ultimately his predictions may prove true, but I wouldn’t bet my money on it. Big money not bean counter call the shots on deals of this size.
Mergers are expensive, cannibalising is cheap. Welcome to the age of the Fire Sale.