A Captain for Russian government-owned low cost carrier Pobeda, a subsidiary of Aeroflot, is reported to have demonstrated real bravery by announcing to his flight that his government’s invasion of Ukraine is a crime and must be stopped. Caveating that he was speaking for himself and not the airline that had brought passengers to Antalya, Turkey, he asked passengers to do everything they could to bring the war to an end. Passengers cheered.
The captain took great personal risk in making this announcement. Not only is dissent over the ‘special military operation’ a Russian crime, his job is at an airline that is majority government-owned. Hopefully he sought asylum in Turkey.
Passenger reaction may have been surprising, too, because it seemed to support the captain’s message while public opinion polls in Russia are srongly supportive of the war.
There are two possible explanations for this. The first is selection bias: the people leaving the country are also least likely to support the way, and this was one of the few international flights being operated by a Russian airline. The second is that the opinion polls are just wrong.
Richard Hanania argues that of course the Russian people support the war (reportedly 70% – 20%) and support Putin (79%, up 15% since the start of the invasion) because “As always, war and hostility from abroad make people more supportive of their government, not less.”
I’m not so sure. Timur Kuran‘s 1995 Private Truths, Public Lies helps explain why so many social movements catch us by surprise. People do not reveal their real preferences when it’s costly to do so. In the Soviet Union public opinion always appeared to support their system, because it was risky to say you didn’t. Then, when the prevailing winds shifted, even those who had genuinely supported and benefited from the old system suddenly took on the mantle of reformers for their own benefit (again, not revealing their true past support).
The same thing happened with Harvey Weinsten and the #MeToo movement. Hollywood ignored and protected Weinstein because he was powerful, and women didn’t speak up because they believed it would hurt them to go public. But once the dam broke, and there were no longer the feared consequences for breaking a silence, all of a sudden everyone told their stories. It was right there in front of everyone and nobody ‘officially’ had known it.
Speaking out – admitting opposition to the war – brings both personal jeopardy (arrest or worse) and career risk (since economic benefits in Russia flow from allegiance to those in power). So we largely cannot know what the Russian people actually think of the war – it’s too risky to them to reveal true preferences. Indeed, we can expect that if the war and Putin fail, suddenly even those who really did support it will cast themselves as having been against it all along.
This Captain in speaking out demonstrates incredible bravery!
This was fake and proven to be. The major media is not a reliable source for information.
Wrong story. Please delete my earlier comment. I have no comment on this though the national media is not to be trusted.
Calvin, alas no media are reliable sources of information nowadays… too many confuse opinion with fact.
Wait.. Calvin and Rich are in “the media” right HERE…. which means they can’t be trusted.
How do we know that they are real and not Martian lizard people. Who will think of the unborn being taught about transgender trucking for freedom??!!??
Calvin has just proven that he is not to be trusted.
Over the years and my work travels to Moscow my conversations with Russians about Putin, Government etc have been met with an almost similar response every time. That is, “Politicians are all the same, why bother caring who is in power, we just trade one criminal for another, at least the streets are safe again here.” I always found this fascinating and such a counter to American optimism and/or our ability to dissent and protest. The majority of Russians honestly never cared. It’s pure apathy. Just keep the streets safe there and you can pillage and cheat and lie all you want. We will see if these new developments and a war against Ukraine will hold together that tendency or if their sons returning in body bags each day begins to shift apathy to anger.
There’s an old story, possibly true, that when Khrushchev was giving a speech denouncing Stalin somebody in the audience yelled, “Why didn’t you say this when he was alive.” Khrushchev stopped and sternly said, “Who said that?” Dead silence. He shouted, “Who said that?” More silence. Then he laughed and said, “That’s why I didn’t say it!”
Things have to reach a tipping point. When Haiti’s tyrant “Baby Doc” ordered his police to fire on a protesting mob and they refused, I knew he was finished. But it takes an awful lot to reach that point. Russia’s history seems to be one of the people taking beatings until they just can’t stand it anymore. Perhaps with what the younger generation has experience of the “modern (Western) world” they are less prone to this abuse. But Putin was smart turning this conflict into a sort of rerun of World War 2 with strong national-religious overtones to “make Russia great again”. In the long run I don’t think it will work any more than bin Laden and ISIS’ efforts to revive the Islamic Caliphate did. But he can do an awful lot of damage in the meantime.
I’m not sure where you get your data but the majority of Russians in multiple polls are against the Ukraine war with about one quarter supporting it.
There are also stories of a top journalist bringing a sign onto the set of an official Russia newscast protesting against the war.
Many people don’t understand that there has been alot of intermarriage between Russians and Ukrainians so many Russians do have Ukrainian family members.
Lots of disinformation and distractions posted above — typical tactics if Russian trolls.
The story is real.
Source: Daily Mail, a real (if imperfect) UK tabloid.
See: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10610861/Russian-pilot-announces-flight-lands-war-Ukraine-crime-stop-it.html
Headline: “”Russian commercial pilot announces after flight lands that ‘the war in Ukraine is a crime, we must stop it immediately’ – to rapturous applause from passengers”
I find this encouraging — especially the reaction from passengers.
Not all Russians are bad. Plenty hate what’s happening as much as any rational person. I wish them well.
If Russia is so bad, why aren’t there millions of people trying to leave their country every year and emigrate to Europe?
Seems like living conditions are much worse in Central America and Africa because there are literally millions of people emigrating out of there. But we don’t much seem to care about “improving” those countries.
Jerry,
Russia is indeed in a demographic downfall. Just because someone wants to leave a country doesn’t mean they can.
and will due respect, have no idea of the nationalities flooding over the US southern border but it is most certainly not just Central Americans and Africans.
And, yes the US does sent enormous aid to other parts of the world including places where people are leaving – but in the US is still better.
And Russians ARE being hurt not just because many do not like the war in part because of family ties but also because average Russians are paying a high economic price that will only get worse.
F Putin
Why do polls indicate Russian support for the war? I remember polls in Poland just prior to their first “free” election. Polls indicated the communists would win by a landslide. I remember many on the left in the US taking satisfaction in that (i.e., “see Reagan was evil – they really like communism”). When the results came in and the communists were slaughtered I remember many in the US news media in shock and confusion over it. But my wife, who grew up under martial law was not surprised at all and predicted it. Most in the US have no concept of what it’s like in other parts of the world. We love to whine about living under “censorship” or “oppression” Hmph ! Political opponents being tied up, tossed out a 12 story window, and called a suicide. That’s oppression. We’re just a bunch of self-indulgent, narcissistic, babies that want to pat ourselves on the back for being brave and “standing up to the man” from a level safety that most in the world can only dream of.
My sources tell me agents of Putin are stealing iphones from AA, FA’s
Trust a poll in Russia? LOL
> Trust a poll in Russia?
Better than trusting a Russian in Poland.
Jerry, you asked “why aren’t there millions of people trying to leave their country every year and emigrate to Europe?”
Well, maybe not millions, but hundreds of thousands do that every year. Which also contributes to their declining population. It’s mostly young, able, enthusiastic and capable people who leave, usually because they can – financially, and otherwise. We won’t see millions leaving not because they don’t want to leave, but because they can’t, again, mostly for financial reason, but also, oftentimes, because of age, relatives, lack of language, marketable skills, profession, etc.
Hope they fire this moron.