Enilria points out that Gulf airlines are dropping prices, even as other airlines around the world are raising fares and suggests that with the Straits of Hormuz closed they have excess oil while much of the world has too little.
For May and June on London-Sydney, Etihad is $910 roundtrip, while British Airways is selling at $2450. Closer to home, looking at Washington IAD to Johannesburg (JNB) United is $1895 rt in June, while Emirates is $1265. Newark (EWR) – Delhi (DEL) is $1595 nonstop on United with around $1200 on the Middle Eastern carriers with Lufthansa matching.
Etihad really does come up as the cheapest option on many of my searches. That’s not the same thing as all Gulf carriers are dumping capacity on all routes. Emirates and Qatar don’t seem to be as cheap.
But I don’t think this is a jet fuel story. In fact, the price of jet fuel appears to be higher in the Middle East than in Europe, North America and Latin America.
There is some fuel security that Etihad and others have that airlines around the world do not. Abu Dhabi airport is fed through a 1,000 mile pipeline network with integrated refinery -> pipeline -> terminal chain. That provides operational resilience.
The biggest reason they’re dropping price is that even with fewer seats from fewer flights right now, nobody wants to fly them. People have already fled or returned home since the beginning of regional conflict. Anyone that doesn’t have to travel to or through the U.A.E is avoiding it.
- The U.S. State Department currently has the UAE at Level 3, ‘reconsider travel’ because of armed-conflict risk, drone/missile threats, and commercial-flight disruptions.
- The U.K. advises against all but essential travel.
Etihad cut fares by up to 50% to fill planes through June. Emirates and Qatar did not.
It certainly was surprising to see Etihad launch its new Charlotte flight on March 20th. New long haul routes are usually going to lose money at the outset under the best of circumstances. And this one was surprising when it was announced a year ago, and looked likely to be marginal.
However it was a commitment Etihad made during President Trump’s visit to the U.A.E., it was effectively a state commitment, and backing out of commitments to the U.S. when seeking to influence U.S. policy towards Iran – while under attack from Iran – would have been the bigger surprise. It’s far cheaper to run the flight than risk the relationship, even if the flight itself seems fairly tangential.
I looked at some prices in June between MSP – COK that I often fly.
While Etihad has the cheapest prices, the rates are about normal during normal times for June/July.
I guess it’s just a matter of other airlines raising routes that otherwise would have been served well by ME3 but Etihad chose to keep normal prices.
I love a deal, but no thanks. Not any time soon. Anyone wanna wager on Dear Leader nuking Iran tonight? I vote, TACO, for humanity’s sake.
@1990 The stone age returns tonight at 8pm. Stay tuned.
@IsaacM — Looking ahead, early 2027, Qatar has relatively cheap fares, like maybe $1-2K less than usual, in long-haul J to S. Asia. (@L737, how did we miss that Kerala is COK… *facepalm*)
@1990 I’m a COK lover. Lol
Anyway, I’m planning to go elsewhere in India early 2027 so I’ll keep an eye out.
Meanwhile Air India CEO stepped down today. I’m not sure his work was done.
@IsaacM — Bahaha!! (I’d really to try out the Busan airport, too.)
Re: Air India, I saw that about Wilson. And Elbers at IndiGo also resigned recently, too (Walsh of AIG taking over). Ben at OMAAT was wondering if AA’s Parker or QF’s Joyce want the job…
An ironic twist to ‘Flyadeal Airlines’, …lol ..although being based in JED, maybe they’re a tad more secure …. Maybe time for an upstart ME carrier “Flyabet” …
@1990 Joyce has done to Qantas what Parker did to AA. Well not exactly the same thing, but the customers aren’t better off.
I’m not sure I’d want either one for the job. Maybe some operations specialist from Tata Sons is what’s needed in this next phase of transformation. But they aren’t doing super well outside of TCS so who knows, another retread CEO is incoming.
Etihad’s award cancellation penalty fees are high, so not biting just yet. Let’s see if EY releases some tickets on AA
@IsaacM — I’ve only flown QF regional; I’m due to fly them long-haul later this year (fingers crossed). I will say, transfer from Amex for use on their metal short haul has been like 3x multiplier on-occasion; also, using AA points has also worked well for me, as a consumer. As far as operations, that’s a different matter entirely. They’ve been relatively reliable to me, but I know times were tough during the pandemic. And the AU market is consolidating with Virgin Australia, JetStar the other primary carriers (Rex sorta gone under, etc.) They’re sorta isolated down there.
Etihad has a lot of good redemptions available at the moment. Seeing just a bit more availability than normal on Qatar, and the normal piddling availability – with normal extortionate fees and taxes – on Emirates – lots of good hotel deals in Dubai at the moment though. Any of these places is safer even during a war than any major city in the United States.
Well, premium cabin saver award space should be abundant.
Still not seeing any premium saver awards across AA/BA for Qatar / Etihad.
@LarryNYC — It’s been a while since I’ve seen those coveted 70K AA points for long-haul J on QR/EY. Like, years. And, even then, it was usually last-minute. What’s been your experience? (I have never actually flown EY, but have pulled it off with QR, which was nice when it worked.)
1990,
EY I’ve found 70K several times long haul, even the very rare FC 115K. Qatar is much rarer these days, but I do find these seats on occasion, typically have to be flexible regarding starting point in the US
@Jon F — Wow, 115K for First on Etihad is a real score. Was that on their a380?
Best I’ve ever done is the EK F for 70K upgrade from paid J, which felt special (especially to shower on-board), but not as great of a deal as what you’ve pulled off.
Before the war, was seeing better deals out of YYZ with EY. No clue where things stand moving forward, because I do not trust the safety/reliability in ME for a while.
Perhaps should consider adding spring / summer digits freedom flights.