Breeze CEO and JetBlue founder Dave Neeleman predicted at the Skift aviation forum that Spirit Airlines and Frontier will merge in 2026. Frontier tried to buy Spirit before they were outbid by JetBlue in a deal that was ultimately scuttled by the Department of Justice, and had discussions again about a deal before Spirit entered bankruptcy.
His argument was:
- “I think Spirit and Frontier need each other…[Frontier CEO] Barry Biffle may not say that, but they do.”
- “Spirit’s restructuring is meaningful” referring to flight attendant and pilot cost reductions as well as cash raised.
- Spirit and Frontier “need the synergies” because “there’s room for a ULCC in the U.S. but probably not two.”
Neeleman attributes the difference in success between U.S. and European ultra-low cost carriers as resulting from European carriers like Ryanair sticking to their core strategies, which included flying to secondary and tertiary airports, rather than competing directly with major carriers – and he notes that U.S. legacies have found success with basic economy fares.
This allows the U.S. airlines to match prices of the ultra-low cost carriers, while restricting benefits enough that they don’t undercut the fares they want to charge to their existing customers.
His articulation of this is instructive for thinking about how his current airline, Breeze, grows – most of their routes do not compete directly with anyone else. He clearly isn’t looking to fly against United, Delta and American to a significant degree.
The JetBlue and Breeze Airways founder is also handicapping which major European airline buys TAP Air Portugal, where there’s a re-privatization in process. He thinks TAP Air Portugal makes the most strategic sense for Lufthansa, and says that he had nearly sold TAP to Lufthansa at one point.
He doesn’t think it makes sense for British Airways parent IAG to buy TAP Air Portugal, because TAP’s Lisbon hub is too close to Iberia’s Madrid hub, and IAG also owns Iberia. So he predicts either Lufthansa or Air France prevails.
Neeleman led the privatization of TAP Air Portugal in 2016. Neeleman’s group took 45% of the airline, with employees holding 5% and the government keeping half. Reportedly Neeleman’s group had about 90% of the economic rights at the airline. However, the government re-nationalized TAP during the pandemic and it reportedly included a payoff to Neeleman of €55 million.
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