Ukrainian flight Attendants are on social media promoting a NATO No Fly Zone over their country. The Russian Air Force has been shockingly absent, likely less capable than believed, but still poses a threat. And this would allow for Ukranian air superiority. They argue that a NATO No Fly Zone would put an end to the war. This seems… inadvisable.
As Scott Alexander points out there are really (3) objectives that the West has in Ukraine:
- Saving Ukraine and Ukranians
- Deterring a future similar attack by Russia or another country
- Avoiding nuclear war
The problem is that these goals are not entirely aligned. A ‘no fly zone’ is really a ‘shoot down Russian planes’ zone and means going to war directly with Russia. We can debate how likely nuclear escalation is, or whether Russia’s command and control systems would allow for it, but that’s a huge bet to make against significant uncertainty. (And nuclear war doesn’t benefit Ukranians, either.)
Putin clearly miscalculated. He saw Ukraine becoming stronger than it was in 2014, and that perhaps this was his last chance for attack. But Russian forces haven’t been nearly as deft as he’d expected, and Ukranian resistance far greater than expected. The U.S. thought they’d be welcomed into Iraq as liberators and Putin may have genuinely believed the same.
Now he’s backed into a corner, sanctions and pullouts of major corporations from Russia are doing significant damage to the Russian economy. It appears he didn’t believe the West was committed enough to take the steps that it has, as haphazard as some of those may be (for instance, a German insistence on continued purchase of Russian oil). But he has no face saving move here other than escalation without Ukranian concessions.
If Putin were really willing to accept a constitutional ban on joining NATO (and the European Union, but perhaps still allowing for joining the Common Market) and recognition of Crimea (already Russian-controlled) and an independent Donetsk and Luhansk that’s really just a freezing of the status quo.
Would Putin keep his end of the bargain? He’s already seen bigger consequences than anticipated from invasion. And this would buy Ukraine time to become even stronger. It could end the war, while having demonstrated that Russia is weaker than believed (something of a paper tiger, less of a threat to Europe) and that the West is capable of concerted action to impose severe financial hardship. And it avoids direct war between the U.S. and Europe on the one hand and Russia on the other. We still believe there’s significant risk that Russia’s nukes are functional, and could be used when there’s nothing left to lose.
A peace deal like this though may not be possible at this point, and Russian demands may be greater than what they state publicly. For instance this would not work:
Russians reportedly demand that Ukraine reduces its military to just 60,000 men (as part of a peace deal), and the 72nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade defending Kyiv now just can’t stop laughing its Javelins off.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2022
In which case, arming Ukraine and heavy sanctions on Russia makes Ukraine relatively stronger and Russia relatively weaker. It means devastation of Ukraine in the meantime as Russians slowly advance. They will take some cities. We’ll see trench warfare and civilian casualties. Until Russia’s hand becomes sufficiently bad that they’ll agree to more reasonable terms. Already they’re cracking down on their own people. Betting markets give a 61% chance Russia closes its borders. (Anyone you know in Russia should flee.)
… the next minute they’re being violently detained and beaten by police, bundled into waiting riot vans. Even the slightest whiff of dissent is now nipped in the bud. 2/2 pic.twitter.com/PJ16D4GnYF
— Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) March 8, 2022
You can wish for regime change in Russia, by the way, but it’s not obvious that would stop the war – as opposed to bringing to power a hardliner who simply believes Russia wasn’t aggressive enough. As emotionally appealing as it is to deny Putin a face saving out, World War III cannot be an option.
With the best will in the world, and I completely accept in their tragic situation id likely be begging the same as I haven’t a clue but I’d rather military professionals at NATO give their assessment to best decide rather than flight attendants, however well intentions, on the merits of such a move.
Why do we care about Ukraine??
The US over-through the democratically elected Ukraine government in 2014
Why the heck do we let them lead us into WWIII?????
Why does everyone take the side of Ukraine here? It’s insane.
Do people have no idea of the recent history???
I saw a comment from an academic the other day that was curious… he was concerned that the sanctions would be TOO effective. After some thought, I’m guessing the concern is that Russia is thrown into chaos. The result can be an aggressive dictator, but I tend to think the greater risk is just that they have thousands of nuclear warheads. If, say, 50 went missing, who would notice during the chaos of collapse?
Western “leaders” could accept Russia’s conditions and end this in a heartbeat.
What a mess…..
@Don +1
@Don + 2
Nuclear war is listed third?
As I understand things, the first step in establishing a no-fly zone is to knock out all anti-aircraft missile sites that could cause a threat to the planes establishing the zone. At least some of those sites are in Russia, so this first step would be an attack by NATO forces on Russian soil. No doubt that would make a wider war impossible to avoid. Just sayin.’
@Don-1
Yes, I have read history, have you? Autocrats and their ilk are never satisfied with one war. If Putin realizes he can walk into Ukraine, do you really he will stop there? Did Hitler stop?
Further, China is watching this closely and seeing what may happen if they (the Chinese) decide to take Taiwan. Since Taiwan has some of the few major semi-conductor fabs in the world, a Chinses takeover would be disastrous to the world economy and give them undisputed leadership in the tech industry. That’s why the US (under Biden) is helping Intel build a $20 Billion semiconductor facility in Ohio.
Biden is Putin’s lap dog. Biden will yap and bark, but he won’t bite his master.
Who cares. Ukraine is a 3rd world, repressive backwater country. It craps on its own citizens as much as Russia does.
The same people who have no clue about the war crimes that have been going on for years in Yemen to keep the petrodollar alive suddenly want everyone to care about the Ukrainian.
Are starving babies due to the blockade and violence in Yemen not worth looking at because of their skin color?
NPCs gonna NPC.
@DFWSteve
Your reply is nonsensical. Trump has been smelling Putin’s butt for years and has continued to show his absolute ignorance how to handle Russia. Finally, we have a President who stands up for democracy. Or, maybe we should pain the Chinese symbol on our fighter jets like Trump suggested. LOL. What a fool.
Amazing how quickly and effortlessly they transitioned from the CovidCon to the ongoing “War Games”.
“When goods don’t cross borders, armies will.” Fredric Bastiat
Russians are NOT Iraqis, Syrians, Libyans, etc. and will shoot back. The title should be:
Ukrainian Flight Attendants Beg NATO For WWIII
@Wiley Dog, Autocrat or whatever label du jour our corporates media comes up with, Putin is taking care of Russia and its interests – not to be encircled by the outdated NATO! At least tRump understood that, and tried to taper off tensions (Russia Vis-à-vis NATO) even though he increased lethal aid to Ukraine (contrary to the false notion that he was liking Putin’s behind). And everybody accused him of disrespecting our “allies”. Remember when he required them to spend more on the Alliance, and everybody in the military-industrial complex and its puppet media went berserk!!!
NATO was established to provide collective security against the USSR. But the USSR is no longer since 1991. Then the nagging question should be why do we need NATO? Billions upon billions $$$ syphoned from people of many nations to feed this military behemoth. Simple, in addition to world dominance, NATO is there to secure energy resources or be a private security for energy interests. tRump understood that fact and so does Biden, but Biden is a puppet of different kind otherwise he would have given Putin the requested security guarantees to avert all this chaos! World peace should be the ultimate goal of any president and for that point, tRump gets the cake!
@Kalboz…Thumbs up across the board! Unfortunately, most of society prefers to get their news from the teevee, rather than doing their own research.
To end the war, Cancel the Casus Belli of the conflict – The Blinken-Ukraine charter of Nov 2021 – https://www.state.gov/u-s-ukraine-charter-on-strategic-partnership/
To all the Russia appologists… This is the end of your buddy Putin. Finally bit off more than he could chew. Russia has been exposed yet again as a paper tiger. Ukraine can’t lose at this point. Even if defeated they will be heroes of history.
The problem with the no fly zone is that Russia will be further embarrassed. Won’t have an airforce within 24 hours of engagement. So Putin will be in a corner alone with his nukes. Which is the only reason anyone suffers his nonsense in the first place.
I have been to Russia several times and love the people, history and culture. Hopefully the Russian people figure out who the real enemy is. And when they do, I hope our leaders are smart enough to reward them with better treatment than we did in the 90s.
Russia probably doesn’t want its military to lose a lot more planes to Ukrainian air defenses. Given the flow of Stingers and other anti-aircraft systems sent Ukraine’s way, Russia may not want to play its high-price cards so much so that NATO allies can note its conventional air warfare weaknesses to a greater extent than known before.
The Lord Trump-worshippers are out in full force along with their fellow apologists for the puppet master Putin who had their Lord Trump as his useful idiot and crazy dancing bear on the world stage.
@James N
I don’t get my news from TV, only the sound-bites. In fact, I have probably read more 20th century history in the past year than you have read in your lifetime. If you think people have changed since WW1 and WW 2, Korea and Vietnam, you are sadly mistaken. Corporate interests play on the egos of narcissistic leaders and start wars. That’s one reason we are going after the oligarchs in Russia. People were associating Putin with tRump and he got pissed off and wants to show the world he is a big boy.
A lot of the blame here goes Ronnie Rayguns and the way the Russians were treated after they beat us in our mutual race to insolvency. They simply went broke in military spending first. Instead of prancing about the “evil empire” maybe Reagan should have brought them in like we did with Germany and Japan.
Wiley Dog,
Reagan wasn’t President when the USSR collapsed; and with or without an inclination to bring in the Russians a la post-WW2 Germany and Japan, neither Gorbachev nor Yeltsin were in a position to do so for the US.
@Ryan,
Russia apologists? Really!
– Death, mayhem, suffering, and war could have been averted if it wasn’t for that sorry excuse of “Russia’s talking points” by Biden & company. Russia has legitimate security concerns that could have been easily abated without ANY cost to the US in terms of security or interests. Imagine, just imagine, if China or N. Korea having military bases near Tijuana, Mexico! What do you think our response would be?
– Gas prices are up to $5/gallon here in the OC (last night) and they are bound to go up as high as $10/gallon due to the latest dumb Biden policy of banning Russia’s oil.
– Inflation due to Covid aftermath of supply chain issues and workforce instability is nearing 10% or more for common everyday items including food. The tit-for-tat with Russia will exasperate the situation.
– Medicare’s Part B monthly premium for 2022 has increased by 15% for our seniors and others (some 50 million Americans) a jump that wiped out the 5.9% COLA increase retirees were happy to receive.
– Million+ refugees pouring into Poland and other neighboring countries – a humanitarian disaster & a destabilizing factor.
– Everyday average Russians who will surely suffer due to the US/Western boycotts/embargoes/bans.
The Europeans were trying to reach an agreement in Paris to revive the Minsk Agreements, but Fascist elements in Zelensky’s inner circle were too intransigent to agree to on anything tangible. Unless we are planning to invade Russia, a comprehensive European security arrangement could have been agreed upon to avoid all this suffering. After all, our government is staffed by the most intelligent people on earth!
“In fact, I have probably read more 20th century history in the past year than you have read in your lifetime.”
Probably not, but also, that doesn’t mean you read the true history. As they say, “History is written by the victors”.
RINO Bush > Putin invades Georgia
Obama > Putin Invades Crimea
Trump > Putin Invades… oh no one hmmm
Biden > Putin Invades Ukraine
just sayin
@Kalboz
Actually would have agreed with many of your points 2 weeks ago. However that’s no longer our reality. And reality is what we have to accept.
If it weren’t for the treaty of Versailles there would be no Hitler. If not for the oil embargo no Pearl Harbor. Hard to argue and also completely irrelevant, just like your points.
The reality today is that Russia invaded Ukraine. We are closer to war with Russia than we have been in 80 years. Pick a side. It’s an unfortunate reality. But that doesn’t make it less real.
F the gas prices. F inflation. F the finger pointing. None of it matters now. I’m sure if you were president none of that would have happened right?!
Reality= Russia has to lose and we must be willing to pay the price. Disagree? Please make sure everyone who knows you knows your stance. Don’t go trying to hide in Argentina when it’s all over.
I have seen no real discussion of what a no-fly zone entails. From these comments, this post, and blurbs on TV, it sounds like people think a no fly zone just involves shooting down Russian planes, helicopters and drones, as if the significant challenges and potentially disastrous consequences of that weren’t enough.
Wake the f up people. A no-fly zone requires establishing and maintaining air supremacy not just air superiority. Translation: eliminating all threats to our aircraft, i.e., taking out ground-based threats as well as those in the air. SAMs and radar-directed AAA (not Russian planes) pose the most serious threats to NATO aircraft. Russia has the S-400 air defense system deployed in the region. It has a range of up to 400km and is one of the most formidable systems in the world!
A no-fly zone is really a no-radiate zone. If a ground-based radar is switched on it must be attacked immediately through jamming and anti-radiation missiles or our pilots will be sitting ducks. Eliminating these systems and the many other SAM and AAA systems in Russia’s arsenal would require attacking them in Russia and Belarus as well as any in Ukraine. Not an easy task not to mention the potential ramifications from bombing Russia!!!
In the Bosnian conflict, Serbia’s air defenses were much weaker in comparison but it still managed to down a U.S. F-16 and even and F-117 stealth in spite of our aggressive air-defense suppression efforts.
I’m glad Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces have done much better than predicted (mostly because the Russians have been so inept). But his whining about NATO not acting as his air force leaves me cold. When the Biden administration was providing reports on the Russian build up and imminent attack, Zelensky didn’t want to hear it. If he had used that time to prepare to repel an invasion, Ukraine would be in even better shape today. Hoping for the best is fine. Just prepare for the worst at the same time.
Last, a no-fly zone won’t prevent the Russians from pounding the hell out of Ukrainian cities with heavy artillery and missiles. When that happens, I can see NATO being asked to take them out, too.
Rufusw9 is a clueless Lord Trump worshipper.
Traditional Republican G W Bush: Putin invades Georgia
Progressive Democrat Obama: Putin Invades Crimea
Racist Democrat-turned-RINO (until his coup against the Republican Party) Trump: Putin invades more and more of Ukraine, while Ukrainians put up a fight against ceding more territory despite Trump’s support for Putin
Traditional Democrat Biden: Putin Invades more and more of Ukraine, but Biden rallies the world to stand up against Putin
Russia was committing more and more of its personnel — irregulars and otherwise — to its invasions of Ukraine even while Trump was President. Trump-worshiper Rufusw9 has too much in common with doofus when trying to sing hymns to his Lord Trump.
The way for Ukraine to have a no-fly zone is for friendly countries to supply the Ukrainian government with the equipment for their own forces — including by those forces who are part of its international legion — to operate and enforce a no-fly zone.
The Ukrainian forces are doing a reasonably good job of making sure Russia’s manned air vehicles don’t have it very safe over Ukrainian skies — which is why in large part the Russian strikes from the air are landing on Ukrainians via cheaper (and sloppier) artillery and surface-based missile means.
It doesn’t even take a day and half’s training with MANPADs to see even a video-game jockey become a substantial threat to helicopters and planes in the skies above them. Remember what happened to the Soviets in Afghanistan? Their air superiority was greater and yet very costly because of that and their reliance on such. And in that case, the US and allies were relying upon much less well-educated and less worldly Afghan tribals to degrade the Soviets air superiority with relentless attacks from the natives on the ground. The natives on the ground in Ukraine today have much greater advantages than the Afghans did during the Carter and Reagan years.
Wow. So many Russian bots here.
Or just so many stupid assholes?