United and American are locked in a battle in Chicago. American had been late to rebuild its schedules at O’Hare after Covid. They had retired too many planes, and didn’t have the aircraft if they wanted to focus on Dallas and Chicago. So they waited and it cost them – Chicago moved to re-allocate gates earlier than they’d promised, taking away gates from American and giving them to United.
This woke up American, which started aggressively adding service. United decided they didn’t want to just keep American from regaining its footprint – they wanted to add even more gates for themselves going forward. They added flights even more aggressively. Since they’re in a stronger financial position, they thought they could bleed American into de-hubbing Chicago, or at least shrinking.
However, the FAA came out and declared that the growth at O’Hare just isn’t possible – too many flights for the airspace. The agency, which doesn’t just regulate air traffic but is the service provider as well (a conflict, which has led to zero accountability in modernizing the system for decades), said the airport just couldn’t handle it and they needed to step in to limit growth. In truth, the whole system needs a rethink but at a minimum the regulatory and service functions need to be split.
There’s now progress on exactly what government-imposed limits at the airport will look like. On Monday they issued a notice “Operating Limitations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport, Notice of Meeting and Request for Information.” (FR Doc. 2026-05325).
- It reconvenes the reduction meeting for March 19, 2026
- Invites written submissions through March 26
- Says the final carrier-specific order will be published afterward
- But most importantly it lays out the proposed flight cap framework.
For summer 2026 (from March 29 – October 24) the FAA compares scheduled 3,038 daily operations operations at the airport to a proposed 2,608 with caps in each half hour. This new proposed level ties to summer 2025, but is odd.
- They initially proposed 2,800 flights per day on February 27
- Then floated 2,500 on March 5.
- Chicago itself objected to anything below 2,800 on March 12
- And now they’re at last year’s levels – zero growth.
The FAA’s statement is that they want summer 2025 schedules proportionately sharing reductions to avoid picking “winners or losers.” But the notion that the airport cannot handle any growth is odd, and underscores FAA failures more than anything else.
The notice does not specify individual airline limits. That comes after the March 19 meeting and March 26 comment window. But they’re proposing significant reductions at peak times.
- 7 a.m. from 133 to 84 scheduled operations
- 12:30 p.m. from 112 to 84 scheduled operations
- 1:00 p.m. from 112 to 84 scheduled operations
- 4:30 p.m. from 122 to 84 scheduled operations
- 6:30 p.m. from 108 to 84 schedled operations
- 8:00 p.m. from 131 to 84 scheduled operations
- 10:00 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. capped at 50, 11:00 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. capped at 30
In much of the reporting people are mixing up two different 2025 baselines at O’Hare. The FAA used 2,680 as a Summer 2025 peak-day reference, but Appendix 1 of the Notice compares their proposal to June 24, 2025 with 2,554 flights. That is why some people describe 2,608 (vs. 2,680) others call it a 2% increase (vs. 2,554). Excluding flights after 10 p.m. the rest of the day is net negative to 2025 under this proposal.
This proposal leaves United as the relative loser. They planned about 750 O’Hare flights a day versus 541 last year. American’s expansion was much smaller, from 484 daily departures last summer to 526 this summer. A much larger share of the erased schedules will come from United. American loses some growth, but it benefits from the FAA freezing the O’Hare arms race near 2025 levels. The FAA says it wants proportional reductions off 2025 levels expressly to prevent one airline from winning or losing.
This is a Summer 2026 congestion order, not a permanent slot regime. But I have to wonder if the FAA believes that O’Hare cannot grow flights, what is Chicago doing spending billions to add gates? These specific flight levels – much of the day below 2025 levels, and certainly below the FAA’s own initial proposal – seem arbitrary.
Kirby decided to F around and he Found out
The obvious solution is an Entirely New Airport somewhere in Indiana. Should only cost $50 billion or so…
Who could have POSSIBLY imagine that the feds would ONCE AGAIN step in to crush yet another anti-competitive UA capacity dumping exercise after what happened in EWR?
Apparently the DOT Sec’y hasn’t been amused by and sees straight through Kirby’s fake identity switch. The $1 million check clearly didn’t work.
Most of us have wanted to see AA rebuild and thrive in ORD and this is great news for them.
It is also great news for DL, the largest carrier in the Midwest with dual MSP and DTW hubs that circle Chicago, and WN and its MDW hub.
Doesn’t look like UA has updated its earnings guidance for the current quarter; AA and DL both said revenue is very strong – in part likely because Easter is early in April this year -and they both expect fuel costs to be $400 million higher – which DL expects to cover with AA and LCCs/ULCCs that have updated their guidance seeing decreased earnings.
what WILL UA do with all of those pesky CRJ550s that the FAA says UA cannot use to clog Chicago airspace and ORD runways and taxiways?
United only “loses” insofar as it doesn’t get to inflict as much damage to AA during 2Q/3Q as it planned. UA will accrue RASM benefit versus projection by not dumping as much capacity into the market.
Depending on how the macro picture plays out, could be to everyone’s benefit.
I am also skeptical that UA could actually operate 783 daily flights out of ORD with its current capacity… let alone *reliably*.
GYY – Gary/Chicago International Airport – exists with an established trane stop (service to downtown Chicago) just outside the airport. Seems like a spot for low cost international airlines to save money.
Had the FAA not stepped in the “losers” would have been flyers dealing with endless delays and cancellations.
Oh no! The MAGA CEO has had his wings clipped by the MAGA regime. Maybe United will go back to pronoun pins after all.
@Tim
Delta may do well this quarter since it has a miniscule international network, so is minimally impacted by ME disruptions. Its one case where being an international midget is an advantage.
Hower, some fanboys may still be purchasing their 450K redemptions to Jeddah
the Middle East has nothing to do with earnings. UA’s extra 2 flights to DXB aren’t even rounding errors in the bottom line – but perhaps UA was giving EK a lot of connecting traffic on 2 777s worth of flying and they chose their partnership w/ less acumen than other airlines.
It’s RUH where DL and RX will cooperate, btw.
but keep deflecting from the reality that, for the second time in a year, the FAA and DOT have had to step in to stop UA’s overscheduling at its hubs.
I have read multiple guidance updates including from AA that says its revenue is strong in the first quarter – same as DL’s – but UA has yet to “speak” even though there is little reason to believe anything is different.
One dynamic that may hurt UA is that it is 1. not near as large to Florida – perhaps because of NK’s cuts, UA will now be larger in Florida than NK (yikes! that they weren’t before) but 2. UA was particiularly strong to western Mexico which took a hit due to “issues” there.
Who knows but what is going on in the Middle East only impacts US airlines due to fuel.
I suspect that UA’s fuel costs are going up way faster than AA or DL; AS said that is the case for them and California is fighting every federal measure to increase refinery capacity on the west coast. Those tired UA 777s burn a whole lot of fuel headed to E. Asia – way more than DL’s all 350 fleet from the continental US to E. Asia other than the single remaining 339 that changes to a 359 in a few weeks
Tim
I was referring to Delta’s current collaboration with Saudia to fly to Jeddah. Although I was wrong in one respect, its 500K Skypesos to fly to Jeddah via Saudia.
With such mouth watering redemptions on such sought after airlines, no wonder Delta’s international network is a rounding error.
SV isn’t even a JV partner. The impact is minimal
And since you clearly aren’t following the news carefully, Saudi Arabia is doing much better with its airspace than Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE.
None of which changes the reality that the Feds are stepping in and on yet another major strategic initiative – this time to kill AA’s hub at ORD and UA now suddenly has to find a place to fly 200 flights/day worth of aircraft time that UA committed to which won’t happen.
Gary got it right… UA is the biggest loser in all of this.
The rest of the world is not ruled by testosterone; common sense prevails yet again
AA can eat shit.
Tim
You must have slept through your geography classes this school year.
Saudi Arabia has a geographic advantage, over Qatar and the UAE in that its airports are far inland, not near the straits. At that it’s not doing particularly well right now airline wise.
The real relief valve is Oman Air. Which is bookable via oneworld airlines, including Alaska.
Trust Delta to offer 500K redemptions on the least effective airline in the region — not just below the Big 3, but also Oman Air now. But not surprising given that delta thinks international means flying to Mexico.
Jon,
I know exactly where SA is relative to Iran.
And you still can’t accept that everyone understands that UA is the loser in the FAAs action HERE IN THE US.
Think you could spare us from the poop flinging deflection act long enough to address that reality? or have you just decided there is nothing that UA can do so you lash out for every other imaginable reason hoping something will stick?
One of UA’s stated goals for 2026 was to kill AA’s ORD hub.
The feds stepped in and yet another testostorone driven UA strategy is in flames on the scrap heap.
Everyone else except UA execs are better off. Amazing how that works, isn’t it?
Gary, whenever the various Reddit subgroups, like for United, etc., link to your posts, they often start with, “usually, I wouldn’t never share a link from VFTW, but…” Gotta say, you don’t deserve that hate (those shills at TPG sure do, but, no, not you.) Sure, I may not always agree with your hot-takes, namely the center-right, occasionally anti-union sentiments, but at least you allow for vibrant discussion, differing views, and often take the time to respond to commenters, without micromanaging us much. No blog/site is perfect; that said, I still think you’re doing a great job. Thanks as always.
@JG
Looks like it was short kirby is going to eat it.
Tim Dunn: Regarding 550’s UA could use them to replace the even peskier CRJ200’s
Who wins or loses depends on which of two interpretations you apply to what United was attempting. If you think United was looking to flood the zone to crush AA, then United is the biggest loser. If, however, you think United deliberately flooded the zone in a scorched earth poison pill attempt to bring the FAA in to cap ORD and stop AA expansion cold (proportional reductions based on last year or the year before favors United and stunts AA’s growth plans because AA was trying to close a gap the FAA’s actions would now prevent them from closing). Time will tell which interpretation turns out to be the correct one.
Not surprising Spectrum Boy would post in a thread even though the thread is not about Georgia Klan Air, who are bit players in Chicago. UA does not ‘lose’ anything here are their current numbers, which AA cannot catch anytime this decade:
Average daily ASMs:
UA at ORD: 73million
AA at ORD: 42.5million
Average daily passengers:
UA at ORD: 53k
AA at ORD: 35k
UA’s daily revenue is nearly double AA
As usual, the UA fan nuts come out of the woodwork to try to defend UA’s genius when the facts clearly are that UA is getting severely smacked up the side of the head AGAIN by the FAA for its capacity dumping and airspace and surface clogging strategies.
There was never any doubt that UA was larger at ORD and no one argued that AA was going to match UA’s size.
The issue is that UA went absolutely off the rails tripling and more the number of flights that AA added out of not just a fear that they would have to compete but also to eliminate a hub competitor – they clearly said that.
UA LOST no matter how much Kirby tries to suck up to Sec’y Duffy telling him how the FAA is UA’s best friend and the best thing the industry has ever had.
UA had every intention of duimping capacity into EWR and also ORD and would have done it if the FAA hadn’t stepped in. It is a heaping pile to think that UA was playing a game otherwise.
oh, and UA finally brought up the end at the JP Morgan Industrials conference today that was the format for all of the investor guidance.
Jamie Baker of JPM opened with this:
“And just to be clear, somebody grabbed me in the hall before and they said, “Why is Delta always first? Why don’t you mix it up and let somebody else take the first slot?” And just to be clear, Delta is not always first. We reserve the opening slot for the airline that generates the largest percentage of industry profits and/or pays profit sharing that is in excess of the sum total of the rest of the industry.
“So to Scott Kirby, it’s Bob Jordan or Robert Isom, this slot is yours for the taking. Ed does not seem to be quaking in his boots. I’m with you on that.”
and then DL’s session closed with Baker saying
“We’ll hold the opening slot for you next year, Ed. Thank you so much.”
wow. just wow.
The FAA and DOT smacked down UA’s strategies and then Jamie Baker, perhaps the “senior” Wall Street analyst that covers airlines told the world that he expects no other airline to dethrone Delta from its leadership position.
Wow, Just Wow.
@Tim Dunn — *slow clap*
it’s no wonder, 1990, that Scott Kirby has such an inferiority complex
Tim
Congratulate your geography teacher on teaching you and your classmates the difference between the Straits of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Honestly, I don’t care much about delta’s domestic travel network vis-a-vis United. I am primarily interested in international premium travel, and this is where Dela falls short, with its 500 Skypesos redemptions to Jeddah.
Spectrum Boy, show us on the doll where Scott Kirby hurt you.
It eats you that UA makes more revenue flying than DL and that UA is number 1 int’l. Pop an extra zoloft kid.
Being stans for multi-billion dollar corporations will always be weird to me.
Carry on.
How people think I am devoted to DL and tout its praises when the “senior” analyst of the US airline industry just put it on the record that no one is in danger of dethroning DL from its leadership position in the industry.
A few diehard eople here incessantly channel Scott Kirby who said at the same conference that the FAA’s intervention was exactly what UA wanted. There was no other airline hub at EWR but UA overscheduled anyway until the FAA stepped in and stopped it. Kirby asked for slot controls at EWR and the FAA used its schedule coordination powers just as it is using at ORD and yet UA fans say that UA got all it wanted.
AA never intended to add as many flights as UA added.
UA turned AA’s fairly insignificant rebuild of ORD as an opportunity to tell everyone it could that UA would bury AA and its ORD hub by tripling or more the number of flights that AA added.
UA lost again. I don’t have to be committed to any company to not recognize that.
There is no other executive team in all of the global airline industry and few American companies that exhibit as much arrogance and get slapped down by regulators and industry leaders with such frequency.
The sooner that some recognize that UA will not be taking the first spot at the JPM Industrials conference and will be a distant #2 in the industry – right between AA and DL among the big 4 and perhaps behind WN as WN rebuilds, then there will be no need for me to continually remind everyone precisely where UA really is ranked in the industry
@Tim Dunn — “How people think I am devoted to DL and tout its praises”… WHAT?? No… never….
@Tim Dunn (if that’s your real name) – Obviously, you believe Delta is the world’s only PERFECT airline.
nope, Ghost
DL has had strategic consistency about what it is for far longer than any other US airline – and has executed on that as well as any other airline.
and, specific to this discussion, if people believe that politics was a factor, then every other airline esp. DL and WN were happy to side w/ AA and share their concerns about what UA proposed. We will never know the conversations that went on behind the scenes but it is certain that it was more than just AA and UA talking to the FAA about ORD.
When you as a company do things that could upset so many other people’s positions, it is a given that the cards will be stacked against you.
I don’t know what’s worse – me taking the time to read all these comments or Tim’s apparently abundance of free time to stalk and respond. Geez. We know, we know. Delta good. United bad. Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Detroit (maybe Seattle?) the best hubs – O’hare, Newark, and Denver are the worst.
I kinda feel sorry for you, Tim. Legit. You need a better hobby.