The State of Frequent Flyer Miles in 2016

by Gary Leff

airplane lavatory
Jan 10 2016

Whether the frequent flyer miles game seems to be historically rewarding, or in dire straits, depends on your perspective and time horizon. The game is different than it was 2 years ago, very different than it was 5 years ago, and orders of magnitude different than it was fifteen years ago.

If you got into the game any time since 2008, the current state of affairs must be downright depressing. You got in at one of the most generous times in history. Programs have gotten smarter, and loopholes close. But on the whole they haven’t gotten simpler, so outsized opportunities remain.

The programs are like the casino house — they set the rules, so over time and across the majority of their customers they’re the ones who should win. The game though is still fun to play, and a small percentage of players can still win. That small percentage, of course, is us.

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American Business Class Awards to Asia Wide Open, Enough Seats for the Whole Family

by Gary Leff

Jan 10 2016

Starting in March (and continuing through the fall) there’s really strong business class award availability on American’s Los Angeles and Chicago – Shanghai flights.

Interestingly the same cannot be said for Dallas – Shanghai, or American’s Beijing flights. So it’s not China generally, just Shanghai and just from Los Angeles and Chicago.

Availability is in both directions (although somewhat limited for Shanghai – Los Angeles). And the Chicago flight often has 6 or more seats open.

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American Starts “Cross-Fleeting” European Routes in May

by Gary Leff

Jan 09 2016

American will begin cross fleeting on a couple of international routes this May. Even though from a customer perspective there’s now just one airline, American, operationally that’s not quite the case. Since they haven’t fully integrated the work groups, especially the pilots onto a single seniority list, they still have challenges in scheduling planes and routes as though they were a single airline. They have to continue to meet the terms of complicated separate contracts.

Seeing cross-fleeting grow, and grow internationally, is a big deal because American still hasn’t even committed to add extra legroom seats in coach for the vast majority of the legacy US Airways fleet. That puts the passenger experience behind Delta and United for those planes.

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Which Airlines are Improving Their Financial Performance the Most?

by Gary Leff

Jan 09 2016

The indispensable subscription-only Airline Weekly ran numbers looking at year-over-year revenue and costs for various airlines in the third quarter, and the difference between those figures, rank ordering carriers.

United and American outperformed Delta by this measure — they saw their costs decline more (11% and 12%) than Delta (7%) though their revenue declined more (-2% and -4% versus -1%). American is certainly under revenue pressure from Spirit, which has it’s own problems — a 2% increase in costs despite declining fuel prices.

The gap between Allegiant – at the very top of the list – and stagnating Spirit underscores that there reaches a point where ultra low cost carriers are no longer well-positioned to cherry pick routes and must face serious competition from larger airlines.

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Federal Government Blinks, All State Drivers Licenses Still Accepted at Security for at Least 2 Years

by Gary Leff

Jan 09 2016

The federal government was threatening not to accept drivers licenses from 9 states at airport security checkpoints.

The story was being broadly reported that this would happen, since: states aren’t complying with the federal ‘REAL ID’ Act., therefore the federal government wouldn’t accept IDs from those states.

But it is not happening and won’t for at least two years.

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