View from the Wing

American to Follow United’s Path?

by Gary Leff on February 26, 2003

The Dallas Morning News is reporting that an American Airlines chapter 11 filing may come as soon as May. Most observers had previously said end of 2003/early 2004. Normally I’d assume this was just American’s posturing to convince their employees to give in to concessions. But the piece suggests that this is the conclusion of the pilots union, not the airline. United may have waited too long to enter bankrupty, with only $800 million in available cash on hand. That gave tremendous leverage to the institutions offering debtor-in-possession financing. While American has about $2.7 billion, they also have very large debt payments coming up. American could choose to restructure those payments off into the future, or they could decide simply not to make the payments — going bankrupt instead in order to conserve their cash…

If we can’t keep intruders out of nuclear labs…

by Gary Leff on February 26, 2003

… the how likely is the TSA to stop terrorist plots at airports? Wired reports on the paucity of security at the Los Alamos nuclear facility: There are no armed guards to knock out. No sensors to deactivate. No surveillance cameras to cripple. To sneak into Los Alamos National Laboratory, the world’s most important nuclear research facility, all you do is step over a few strands of rusted, calf-high barbed wire.

Car Rental Bonus

by Gary Leff on February 25, 2003

Register for a National Car Rental Emerald Club Membership and earn up to 12,500 bonus miles for renting cars on your choice of American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, or United Airlines.

Will War Bring Global Consolidation of the Airline Industry?

by Gary Leff on February 24, 2003

If the US invades Iraq, already flailing airline stocks could be pushed down even lower. That could actually make them cheap, especially for an acquirer. And rumor has it that Qantas is considering a 25% stake in American Airlines. American and Qantas are already partners. Actually, British Airways owns 18% of Qantas, and BA, AA, and Qantas are all partners. So it seems like a fairly logical move. On the other hand, if things don’t turn around for American, they’re maybe a year off from bankruptcy. And war with Iraq could bring that even closer. I can’t see Qantas dumping in good money right before a fall. Perhaps they could come up with a friendly deal wherein American goes into Chapter 11, Qantas provides debtor-in-possession financing, and comes out a 25% owner of a restructured…

Fact-checking the experts

by Gary Leff on February 24, 2003

There are some columnists, like Joe Brancatelli, that are both insightful and consistently get their facts right. In Joe’s case, I think he’s often a bit over-the-top, such as when he recommended that the federal government nationalize all the airlines. But at least his advice is generally sound. On the other hand, there are columnists that consistently get their facts wrong or offer only half the story, so that their advice is unhelpful. I haven’t developed a comprehensive list of these people to avoid, but I did read one column this morning that really set me off. Christopher Elliott’s piece on five outstanding airline flights offered tidbits just are just wrong. I haven’t read enough of his work to know if this is a one-off occurrence or something that’s endemic to his writing. But let…