United said it was drawing a line in the sand in Chicago, and that it would add flights as American Airlines added them to prevent American from gaining a single gate.
- They were explicit that they had not planned to do this, that American would naturally regain some gates. But American’s buildup in 2026 would be met flight-for-flight.
- And that United could do this because they’re profitable in Chicago and profitable overall, while American loses money in Chicago (and I’d note that they lose money on their flying, overall).
What I explained is that United Airlines did not actually want to add capacity in Chicago. It would be money-losing capacity. They were announcing this strategy publicly in order to box American in and make it difficult to add flights. Either American would choose not to, because they’d know in advance it wouldn’t benefit their gate position going forward, or they’d do it but Wall Street would force them to back down.
American immediately added flights in Chicago in response to United CEO Scott Kirby’s threat. So – on the morning of American’s earnings call – United announced another build up in Chicago.
The timing of this should be understood as no coincidence. It’s a message clearly aimed at Wall Street to pressure American to back down and back away from O’Hare.
- American added flights from Chicago O’Hare to (3) cities last week: Allentown, Pennsyvlania; Columbia, South Carolina; and Maui.
- So United is adding flights with even greater frequencies to (5) cities:
• Champaign/Urbana, Ill. (CMI) operated 4 times daily beginning April 30, 2026
• Kalamazoo, Mich. (AZO) operated 4 times daily beginning April 30, 2026
• Lansing, Mich. (LAN) operated 4 times daily beginning May 7, 2026
• La Crosse, Wis. (LSE) operated 4 times daily beginning May 7, 2026
• Bloomington/Normal, Ill. (BMI) operated 4 times daily beginning May 7, 2026
That comes after United already added flights to “Santa Barbara, Calif. (SBA); Monterey, Calif. (MRY); Eugene, Ore. (EUG); Bristol/Tri-Cities, Tenn. (TRI), Erie, Penn. (ERI); Rochester, Minn. (RST); Wausau, Wis. (CWA); Marquette, Mich. (MQT), and more as part of its summer 2026 schedule” and “more than 80 cities will receive additional flights.”
And as an additional flex, United is trotting out Illinois governor J.D. Pritzker in support of its efforts,
The record-breaking expanded flight offerings from United Airlines planned for this coming summer at O’Hare demonstrates the company’s sustained commitment to growth in Illinois – boosting our economy, supporting jobs, and strengthening Chicago’s tourism and hospitality industries.
Now, this is classic anti-competitive behavior.
- They’ve signaled their commercial intentions to American to try to restrain competition.
- They’re engaged in dumping. United says this tit-for-tat will cost them profit. United further says that commercial realities will set in, which will mean airlines back off of their overscheduling.
- That means it’s pump and dump, adding overcapacity to drive out a competitive, planning for a pullback of capacity in the market once they’re defeated.
Here’s Scott Kirby, from their earnings call, on what happens to excess capacity:
Ego usually beats economic gravity in the short term, but economic gravity always wins in the end.
And United’s Andrew Nocella,
I do think eventually businesses stop doing unprofitable things.
Kirby also explained that American ramping up in Chicago, bringing extra capacity to the Chicago market, has already cost them $100 million.
[I]n 2025, even with all that growth, the Chicago RASM outperformed the rest of the system by 1%, and we made a $500 million profit. By the way, I think we probably would have made $600 million. So it probably cost us about $100 million.
To be sure, this is going to be great for Chicago flyers in the short-term. There will be more flight options and lower prices as a result. So, consumer surplus! But don’t get used to the flying. I don’t believe this should be illegal. Antitrust is a mess, and everything is illegal. Remember that,
- If you underprice your competitors, that’s a predatory practice.
- If your prices are higher, that’s monopoly pricing.
- And if your prices are the same, that’s collusion.
Ultimately, anti-dumping isn’t likely to be something pursued by the current administration. Recall that United was a $1 million donor to the President’s inauguration, and Scott Kirby was the only senior airline executive willing to support tariffs, which he doubled down on.
Besides, it’s not clear that anything is actually illegal anymore.
this is not just about the Chicago market – these new markets are all driveable.
This is about pushing for size in Chicago that ensures that AA and UA will BOTH be harmed; for UA execs to somehow think they can add 200 flights/day at ORD over the space of a year and not be harmed financially is beyond naive.
The fact that UA execs talk about emotion and not realize it applies to then is beyond sad.
As hard as it is for some to hear, DL is the biggest winner in all of this as AA and UA bloody each other in Chicago and LAX.
AA just reported break even profitability for 2025 so they don’t have much margin to sustain heavy losses but ORD Is strategically significant for them and they won’t walk away,
AA could use some good marketing. The best they’ve done this year is pushing pictures of their new planes (which most people won’t fly on) and engaging in a turf war in Chicago that at least has the feeling of AA having a little bit of fight in them.
UA has switched to trying to use its more global network as marketing, although how well it’s half-full flights to Nuuk are playing these days… it’s not always the best strategy to fall in lock step with the government! Not bad for the short term though.
DL doesn’t need to have great marketing because it’s already perceived as the market leader (whether it is or not is actually the market leader is irrelevant – it’s the perception that matters).
These additional flight will be good for the consumer as I’m sure some fare wars will ensue
Looks like some fertile ground for staffing agencies 🙂
AA should take this opportunity to shift some hub traffic from Charlotte to Chicago. We all know the Charlotte airport is bursting at the seems. AA could actually improve overall customer satisfaction by reducing traffic at Charlotte to beef up Chicago.
Never thought I’d see the phrase “pump and dump” on a mainstream travel blog, giggle.
I’m struggling to understand how this is anticompetitive in a capitalistic market. This is EXACTLY how capitalism-based are designed to function.
What is being implied here is that the government should step in and stop UA from engaging in anti-competitive behavior. That’s not gonna happen, nor should it.
This is no different than an airline dropping fares on specific routes to compete against a new entrant, or up-gauging their aircraft on a route. This is basic “protect your nuts” 101. Elite competitors aggressively defend market share.
I’m shocked some of the staunchest defenders of keeping the government out business are spinning in their heels and demanding government / legal intervention.
Ahh, yes, earnings, quarterly profits, line goes up, all that matters; forget about passengers, workers, reliability, or comfort, because none of those peons are the actual customer… it’s shareholders.
@Peter — Let’s be real…other than Gary and the other bloggers, next-to-no-one knows or cares about a so-called ‘turf-war’ at ORD.
@Parker — Yeah, the thin-veil and dog-whistle of ‘free markets’ has gone full-blown crony capitalism. Not even worth trying anymore in that casino.
Governor Pritzker states United is supporting jobs, economy, etc. Didn’t United recently purchase land in Denver area to relocate their headquarters from Chicago when their current lease expires?
@JoeT United has been coy about what they’re planning to use the land for. Even if United moves their corporate HQ to Denver, UA will still be on the largest employers in the city given the size of their operations at ORD. And, we have no idea what deals are being made behind the scenes to entice UA to keep their HQ in Chicago.
UA has decided they are going to lock horns with AA in ORD. Personally, I think it’s the right call. They have no real competition at their hubs in IAD, EWR, SFO and IAH. Domination at LAX requires taking on too many airlines at once. And out in DEN, WN and F9 are both on the struggle bus for different reasons.
ORD is a UA’s largest hub, and it’s a fight they can win. They may not push AA to debug, but they can certainly constrain an airline that has earned its reputation as one of the worst in the US aviation industry. Meanwhile, the city is playing smart politics here: back the winning team.
Prediction, made with remorse as a Dallasite, AA management is inept, and their product is inferior, so they will lose.
This is great for consumers. Clearly, O’Hare is a contestable market.
Parker
Scott Kirby has been engaged in market share contests for the entire time he has been CEO of UA and it has hurt UA’s earnings. UA flew 10% more ASMs than DL in 2025 but earned just 2/3 of what DL earned.
And UA might have high share in its hubs but its hubs are in metro areas where there is lots of competition – and the largest overlap by metro area between the big 4 is between UA and WN.
AA has by far the stronger position in Washington DC with the domestic market.
In New York City, which has been UA’s highest revenue local market, it is an ongoing battle between DL and UA.
so, no, UA does not have a great competitive position to be engaging in competitive battles.
DL is the only carrier that UA is not trying to gang up on because UA and DL execs both know that DL will win any contest for the same reason that UA thinks it will win contests against any other carriers besides DL – because UA is more profitable than all of them except DL.
The real question is when DL decides to turn up the screws on UA in NYC and over the Pacific where the two compete the most. UA simply can’t engage in all of these battles w/ everyone else and stand up to DL’s desire to grow in UA’s largest markets.
As much as some hate to hear it, DL is the biggest winner in all of this followed by WN that becomes a much more viable airline for business travel starting today.
@1990 – any competition is a good thing. AA deciding to even sort of compete is a good thing. Too many of the spheres of influence are otherwise ridiculously intractably set, so even though this is just a little bit of competition, I for one encourage it. Will AA “win”? Eh maybe not, but put your competitors through their paces and maybe they’ll stumble a bit also. You can hit an ace and win your point in tennis, or your competition can hit the ball into the net. Both work.
@Peter — I’m all for it. Just feels a bit over-hyped. Chicago remains United’s headquarters. Yet, already,. ORD is a relatively diversified airport (akin to LAX). There are other monopolies like ALT, IAH, CLT that could use more competition, too.
“Delta is amazing. Delta is wonderful. Everyone else sucks. No one will ever catch up to Delta. United is awful. United is a failure. United makes less money. Kirby is a charlatan.” Innovative and unexpected commentary from @Tim Dunn who seems to think the only metric of organizational success in profit.
Sorry, Timmy, but DL may be making more money than UA, but they are not a better airline any more. When flying DL after 12pm I expect to be delayed making my way through ATL, and I expect my flights into DTW to cancel or delay to the point that I get to sit for several hours waiting for the next flight where I get downgraded from first class to a middle seat in main economy. Then I get to board dirty planes with uninspired flight attendants serving crappy snacks that haven’t changed in years. All while offering some schlep $15 to upgrade because apparently DL thinks that $15 is more important to their bottom line than my loyalty as a DM who earns my status largely on flights alone. And, if I’m lucky, my Delta flight won’t come to an end upside down on the runway.
Buy, hey, you do you, my friend.
well, no, Parker, profit isn’t everything
But AA and UA also underperform DL on many operational metrics.
As hard as it is for you to read or hear, DL is running the best business and airline in the US right now.
Yeah! Almost all of the short haul ORD flying that UA is adding is on 50 seat CRJ torture tubes!
I don’t care if it’s free….not going on one of those ancient birds.
Which aircraft is AA using to find this AA growth? They don’t have many deliveries, yet they’re adding all these flights.
With UA receiving 120 new planes this year, they won’t have to cut flying elsewhere.