The President is expected to announce a new policy towards Cuba as soon as Friday in a planned speech in Miami that would “tighten rules on trade and travel, rolling back parts of former President Barack Obama’s opening to the island.”
Among the options under consideration are banning U.S. companies from doing business with Cuban enterprises tied to the military – which controls a large part of the communist-ruled island’s economy – and tightening rules on Americans traveling there, according to people familiar with the discussions.
Any return to a crackdown on business and tourism is likely to focus rhetoric on abuses of human rights in Cuba, which are of course true. However US policy towards Cuba has failed to foster regime change or liberalization for 50 years, at some point you declare the strategy a failure and try something different instead of doubling down.
Reportedly Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart received a commitment from the Trump administration to roll back the Obama administration’s liberalization of relations with Cuba in exchange for casting the deciding vote in the House in favor of Obamacare reform.
Fishing on the Malecón in Havana
Policy Announcement May Not Actually Come Friday
Just because the administration says an announcement is coming, doesn’t mean it’s coming. Apparently there’s a pattern where everything is going to be announced or wrapped up ‘soon’, usually in two weeks.
Twenty years ago someone told me about their experience as a camp counselor on a field trip. After a long drive, with quite a ways to go, kids started asking ‘how much longer?’ and he’d answer “about 20 minutes.”
One by one the kids would cycle, and each one was told 20 minutes.. over the course of about an hour.
Finally the first kid returned to ask again and again was told ‘about 20 minutes.’ Confused, the kid said “but you said 20 minutes before!” and he said, “yes but I meant 20 minutes from now.”
And indeed officials “cautioned that a delay in the announcement is still possible if it takes longer for Trump to make a final decision.”
Unclear How This Will Affect Passengers and Airlines
Since the policy hasn’t been fully formulated, and there’s intense lobbying over the particulars, we don’t yet know what new restrictions will be put in place as part of a partial rollback.
And we do not know whether any policy change will be immediate, either.
Airlines have been losing large amounts of money flying to Cuba as it is and as seemed obvious from the start that they would with largely leisure travel originating in the U.S. and very little demand originating in Cuba along with limited tourism infrastructure in the country. However carriers wanted to establish their foothold using limited flight authorities and prevent competitors from doing the same.
Some travelers could have their already-booked plans disrupted, despite a good faith understanding of U.S. policy, if there isn’t a substantial transition period allowed for any change in policy.
And airlines could begin to lose even more money, with fewer US travelers buying tickets. We would expect then to see additional shakeup in the market.
But I thought this guy was pro-business, no? Pro-liberty to let it’s’ citizens travel freely?
“EL LOCO’ (meaning the crazy one) as I refer to Mr. Trump, is at it once again! What has become of our country?!
I thought Trump has a “head for business”????
Would this also apply to US hotel companies with new hotels in the pipeline?
The issue for me is that the “Cuban Embargo” was done by Congress with such laws as the Helms-Burton Act. Personally, I don’t agree with these laws. They have not achieved their objective of regime change and making things better for Cubans. However, President Obama, per his own statements, “acted because Congress would not act” here. And now the opening of trade and travel with Cuba clearly contradicts various laws passed by Congress – even if they are bad laws. So, let’s change the law. If not, there is no rule of law in our country and we have an executive order superseding laws duly passed by Congress, which is not constitutional. So, call your Congressman if you want trade and travel to Cuba.
I flew with my girlfriend JFK-Havana non-stop round-trip on Delta a few months ago for a 5-day getaway, and we had a terrific time. I’m Diamond with Delta, and we got upgraded to Business both ways. The cuban people were extremely warm and friendly to us, and we had one great adventure after another. AirBnB worked great: we stayed in scrupulously clean homes with private en-suite facilities for about $40/night, and home-made full-breakfasts for an additional $5/each. Everywhere there’s live latin-jazz that’s first-class by my NYC standards. We went horseback riding without worrying about release-forms (and without risk-averse wranglers keeping us in line and walking all the time). We were free to go off on our own and apply our own common sense (I have some experience with horses). Salsa dancing opportunities everywhere. Riding around in “taxis” that in the US would be in the Henry Ford museum – all maintained in their original (or near original) condition. In even the poorest neighborhoods that we visited, no-open sewer systems (like you see everywhere in SE Asia or other poor parts of the world), everyone is educated, has universal healthcare, and have jobs. The streets are clean everywhere (jobs!), even if the buildings are crumbling in many cases. We felt completely safe at all times of the day or night. I asked everyone (AirBnB operators, taxi drivers, local people we met at cafes) how they liked living in Cuba – and universally they are happy, a bit frustrated with US policy – sure it would be nice to see some investment from the US, but glad to meet Americans. The US policy of embargo has been a total failure. The Cuban Revolution was bad for the rich capitalists (summary trials and executions at the hands of Che is not a pretty story), but good for the poor. The US policy hasn’t restored the Cuban assets of any former Cuban capitalists now living in Miami, and the people of Cuba have no interest in going back to their lives under Battista. Our short visit was a total success, and I highly recommend it. That’s the reality on the ground as we saw it.
Like Trump gives a rat’s ass about human rights. China, Vietnam, Turkey, the Philippines, Russia, Poland are all Trump favorites and all have dismal or worsening human rights records. It is all about trying to build himself up by tearing down progress of his predecessor. As things continue to go south for this scum bag he’ll probably try an executive order reasserting his claim that Obama was born abroad.
I had a great trip there. One thing to remember is that changing American currency to CUCs incurs a 10% penalty in Cuba so change your dollars to Euros or other currency of choice before departing the US. The good thing about light demand for Cuba flights is that they are an easy upgrade for elites.
We should make this a learning opportunity. Next time the U.S. receives a massive refugee influx from a single country, let’s split them up. As things are, a Miami-area critical mass of a measly 800,000 Cuban refugees have for decades exercised an undue and radically conservative influence on US affairs, both foreign and domestic.
So are all the instant citizens from Cuba going to be sent back, and that policy rescinded? Gee, maybe not.
Did airlines get their delay notification strategy from that camp counselor in your story? No matter how bad the issue, departure is always pushed back 20 minutes at a time. Sometimes for hours on end.
@ Christopher Stabb — Excellent observation. Reasonable people can disagree about what our Cuba travel policy should be. Seems like this is exactly the type of issue that should be addressed by Congress, and not by executive order from whomever is the President in any given year.
Another of King Barry’s unconstitutional actions reversed.