Is It Time To Let Spirit Airlines Die?

Is it time to let Spirit Airlines go?

Although President Trump on Tuesday morning mused that the federal government could get involved in a Spirit Airlines bailout I did not take this seriously. It would be clearly illegal though that on its own might not prevent the effort. Simply put, people take the President too literally in his musings.

Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy has said that ‘the President would decide’ in the context of airline mergers, but he also pointed out just how dumb a federal government takeover of Spirit Airlines would be.

Duffy said ​it appears no one wants to buy Spirit and it is not clear how Spirit’s customer base feels about the airline. “What would someone buy?” Duffy asked. “If no one else wants to buy them, why would we buy them?”

…”By the way if you do do ‌Spirit, ⁠who comes next? Who is the third?”

Frontier Airlines did make a play for Spirit, but Spirit felt the price wasn’t high enough and a deal did not get done.

The problem for Spirit is that they really have very little of actual value for an investor or acquirer.

  • They still may own about 48 of their planes and 18 spare engines, but they’ve borrowed against those.
  • 22 New York LaGuardia slots and 6 gates in the Marine Air Terminal.
  • 16 peak Newark runway timings, however “schedule approvals are not transferrable like slots” so value is ambiguous without buying the whole airline.

Buying Spirit Airlines would be of greatest benefit to a new airline startup because the most valuable other asset that it has is an Air Operator’s Certificate. It would take a new airline probably 2-3 years and tens of millions or dollars (or longer, and more) to gain FAA approval.

You need to show competent personnel (‘the five wise men’) plus adequate facilities, equipment, and spares. That’s a management team, manuals, training, conformity, proving runs, maintenance program, dispatch and operational control, systems, facilities, insurance, and working capital. The Five Wise Men are:

  • Director of Safety
  • Director of Operations
  • Chief Pilot
  • Director of Maintenance
  • Chief Inspector

There are almost no new part 121 commercial airline startups. And those that do start usually buy the bones of an existing one. Xtra Airways preserved a single Boeing 737-400 to retain its Part 121 certification, and sold to startup Avelo Airlines. But Xtra Airways – a private transaction with undisclosed purchase price – likely didn’t cost tens of millions. Breeze began certification as a new airline, raised $100 million, and actually then bought the certificate from Compass.

A brand new Airbus operator would value Spirit’s manuals, operational leadership, and regulatory approval. But that’s really it. A new operator would also rid itself of the Spirit Airlines name and brand – it’s toxic! They don’t need Spirit’s 7,500 employees or South Florida corporate campus.

Investors put money into a Spirit Airlines first bankruptcy and are being wiped out. It wasn’t ever clear how they’d get their money back when the carrier’s exit plan didn’t really make meaningful changes to its business. That was before current oil prices.

I actually love that Spirit Airlines exists. (1) They help drive down airfare costs (2) The Big Front Seat can represent great value (3) Their primary business seems to be creating viral online passenger content.

Doesn’t letting them go, though, help make Frontier Airlines more viable? And isn’t that good for low fares and jobs? Spirit’s planes, gates and pilots still exist. Some of those planes wouldn’t stay in the United States, but total Spirit capacity is less than 2% of the industry and much of that capacity would remain flying after an adjustment period.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. They adjourned their disclosure statement hearing yesterday afternoon sine die (without date). Absent the Orange person turning the Yellow airline into something Gold-plated (no president wants 14k jobs to liquidate, but felt like a very half hearted statement yesterday), it’s done. There will be some competition for the LGA slots, perhaps. No one wants to fly out of the old and dilapidated LGA Marine Air Terminal. And whomever buys the “most” will put out some press release to appease the Orange person that says that they’ve acquired the ‘spirit’ of Spirit and will have a job fair to hire as many ex-Spirit employees as possible (without actually committing to hire any).

  2. None of this is great. Loss of jobs, options for consumers. And fuel prices still rising, shortages likely. And pretty sure DHS, TSA, etc. still isn’t fully resolved. (And, Gary, in addition to that SW near-midair at BNA, there was another near-midair at JFK between AA/AC.)

  3. the problem was that the US handed out aid to the economy and the airline industry in 2020 and that started w/ the current national leader’s first administration. Duffy seems to have a better grasp of reality in saying that NK isn’t worth saving. Given that NK has already pulled a couple percent of domestic US total capacity by returning airplanes – that is why the planes are piling up in the desert – and UA just said it would pull 5% of capacity – essentially making them no growth – the US can probably get through this crisis through capacity cuts.

  4. A sad situation for those involved, not to mention ticket holders who hopefully will be reimbursed rather than left hanging as unsecured creditors. But the century-long history of airlines is that of many, many mergers and failures. To use an old expression, it does sound like it is time for Spirit to give up the ghost.

  5. @Dan — I hope so; you know, so they can get to where they’re going. (It’d be an added bonus if they annoy you.)

  6. 1990 thrives on this “sky is falling” theme. Should we save every job everywhere when companies make bad decisions? I don’t see your same concern for the individual fast food workers of a closing chain vs these poor suffering airline workers. Bad decisions have prices to pay.

  7. I hope the aoc doesn’t go to waste. Despite spirit, frontier and JetBlue’s difficulties, there is still room for a novel startup. After all, the US domestic flying experience can only be described as awful.

    My proposal:
    – assigned overhead bin space (for a fee or with J or elite status). No more rush to board to get bin space.
    – Fast boarding process(window, then middle, then aisle)
    – In airports with significant presence, the airline gate area is the lounge. Controlled access to gate area, then once inside, comfortable seating, complimentary snack and drinks, upsell for alcohol and better food.
    -And most importantly, no unions.

    Guaranteed profitable and great customer experience.

  8. Why are there only legacy carriers and the ULCC models? Time to manuver into a “basic” fare carrier. Luggage & Luxury are out of touch for a 3 hour domestic flight. While many will. gasp, get over it. We’re spending a billion day for ballrooms sculptures and a war. Shake up the grifters and make them save jobs.

  9. If under-performing airlines closed up shop, would that really be such a bad thing?

    Reducing flights and increasing fares would move business travelers to teleconferencing. Leisure passengers would stay closer to home, likely boosting local economies in the process. Load on the ATC system would drop to more manageable levels, with a likely emphasis on the freight carriers. Wins all around.

  10. @ANAL — Did you not-see that ‘unverified’ story about how He almost nuked ’em, but-for JCS Caine’s ‘gettin’ him outta the room’… dude, if that’s true, the sky almost did fall, recently… (lemme guess, not true, according to you? Lies! Alternative facts!)

    @Mantis — I also hope AOC doesn’t go to waste, both the Air Operator Certificate, and, also, the beloved Congresswoman. *wink*

  11. @Denver Refugee — Naw, still bad for workers and consumers. You still assume the market is actually ‘free’ and ‘rational’ (or, at least ‘self-interested’), but, clearly in this era, little is rational anymore, and, both specifically and generally, markets are regularly corrupted by insiders, regulatory capture, and outright monopolies. So, time will tell if Papa lets ’em fail, or bail ’em out, probably only if they give Him ‘golden shares’ personally and rename it after Himself. Sadly, it seems actually up to Him. Psh.

  12. Spectrum Boy and Fatty, two peas in a pod. SB UA is lowering growth but not cutting it. I know you are triggered by them having higher revenues than Georgia Klan Air but Fatty’s disdain for the common man, typical of his ilk, does not mean NK is going anywhere. You two need to find a large and medicated safe space.

  13. LOL: Denver Refugee. Trying to stir things up again.

    Go on a travel website, and say it would be “Wins all around” if “increasing fares” fares make it too expensive for anyone to fly. It would not be a “bad thing” “ If [all] under-performing airlines closed up shop”. He, He, He, Chop,Chop.

  14. Jim L
    too bad you can’t read financial statements. None of your statements are correct.

    NK may or may not survive. Duffy said “he would have a conversation w/ Trump about NK”

    There should have been a conversation w/ 45 about the impact of all of the bailouts that were thrown out during covid; the blue team just expanded and extended them which drove record inflation and helped produce the K shaped economy we are in now.

    No one wants to see any employee lose their job but Gary is correct; NK is of no value to the national aviation system which is why no one has expressed interest in buying them as is.

    while you have to resort to name calling and still miss the point, there are people including Gary that can accurately see the industry for what it is

  15. Jim L too bad you can’t read financial statements. None of your statements are correct. NK may or may not survive. Duffy said “he would have a conversation w/ his boss about NK” There should have been a conversation w/ 45 about the impact of all of the bailouts that were thrown out during covid; the blue team just expanded and extended them which drove record inflation and helped produce the K shaped economy we are in now. No one wants to see any employee lose their job but Gary is correct; NK is of no value to the national aviation system which is why no one has expressed interest in buying them as is. while you have to resort to name calling and still miss the point, there are people including Gary that can accurately see the industry for what it is

  16. If that senile Biden had left businesses be able to do business. Both JetBlue and Spirit would be better off. But the parasites wanted to stop it.

  17. Gene,
    address your comment to Jim L. He is the one that is on the spectrum and dragged other airlines – under their real names or not – into the conversation. No one else went on a name-calling and factually incorrect tangeant

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