Will American Airlines File Bankruptcy?

by Gary Leff

depressed businessman leaning his head below a bad stock market chart
Jun 28 2020

There’s no question American Airlines, and all of the major U.S. airlines, survive 2020. The federal government gave them over $50 billion. The question is what revenue looks like in 2021, and whether airlines can get closer to breaking even including debt service.

Once that happens though if American Airlines is carrying more debt, with greater debt service, they’ll financially underperform the industry. And then Chapter 11 bankruptcy starts looking attractive in order to get competitive costs. Financial markets appear to be predicting there’s a reasonable chance of it. Doug Parker says it’s not in the cards – and stands to lost out personally if they do given his 2.4 million shares in the company.

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Flying Just Isn’t a Big Coronavirus Risk

by Gary Leff

Jun 27 2020

We need to stop acting like it’s February or March, when we didn’t know much about spread of the virus. As the CDC says, “Most viruses and other germs do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates and is filtered on airplanes.”

Your bigger risks are in the airport, and at security checkpoints, than in the air. For most of us, though, we don’t need to fear air travel.

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It Takes Multiple Violations Before American Airlines Bans Most Passengers Who Won’t Wear Masks

by Gary Leff

Jun 27 2020

Flight attendants at American Airlines are submitting “a couple dozen” reports per day on passengers refusing to wear masks, according to Senior Vice President of Flight Services Jill Surdek at a question and answer session with flight attendants this past week, a recording of which was reviewed by View From The Wing.

Corporate security reviews each report and it’s a “super easy decision” to ban the passenger after they’ve been reported “multiple times.”

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Air Travel Data Suggests China Had Nearly 40 Times The COVID-19 Cases They Reported

by Gary Leff

Jun 27 2020

A RAND Corporation study looks at travel patterns to estimate “China’s reported COVID-19 caseload was undercounted by a factor of nearly 40.”

In fact based on outbound air passenger numbers, to have just an even (50/50) chance of COVID spreading to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, and the United States – as it had by January 22 – you’d need an infection rate 37 times greater than China officially reports.

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EXCLUSIVE: CEO Doug Parker Gives Growth And Employment Forecast For American Airlines

by Gary Leff

Jun 26 2020

Doug Parker has shared with unions this week that American Airlines expects to be a 10%-20% smaller airline in summer 2021 than before the coronavirus pandemic. In the fall they’ll have 20% – 30% too many people on staff, and they’ll have to reduce the flight attendant work group based on that number – while retaining pilots based on where they plan to be by mid-2021.

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