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Why Banks Will Keep Paying Big Credit Card Rewards (Until the Economics of Cards Change)

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Jan 28 2019

Recently the Wall Street Journal wrote about banks trying to control rapidly spiraling rewards costs. I didn’t take seriously the idea that banks would cut back on rewards to consumers to do this because they are offering rich rewards for a reason: they need to do so to attract consumers which earn them a piece of every transaction (plus annual fees, and interest when they don’t pay off their bills).

Josh Barro though takes on the broader claim about banks backing off of big rewards in New York magazine.

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My Credit Card Predictions for 2019 and Beyond

What 2018 Taught Us What to Expect in 2019 The Future of Credit Card Rewards There’s a reasonable risk of recession some time in 2019. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. Together that means higher cost of capital for banks and greater repayment risk on the credit they extend. As a result I see approval standards for premium rewards cards tightening. Initial cardmember bonuses remain crucial to attracting customers and demonstrating to them that the card has value quickly, in order to encourage moving a new card top of wallet. The fact that Barclays wasn’t successful with Arrival Premier moving consumers to a model of rewarding them after they’ve proven their value to the bank means that issuers can’t move away from big up front rewards. I continue to be impressed by how…

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