Expect A Lot Less International Travel For A Long Time

by Gary Leff

Apr 12 2020

There’s this idea out there that ‘once this is over’ (whatever this is, the first phase of lockdowns or the immediate virus threat) travel will turn back on like a light switch. I do not expect that to happen.

More travel will start back up domestically. International travel will take a lot longer to recover. Some parts of the world won’t get through the virus as quickly as others. It’ll take longer for some governments to lift restrictions than it will for others.

However lifting of outright bans alone won’t mean it’s as simple to just buy a plane ticket and ago, provided you have a passport, the way it was before for many destinations.

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Will More Videoconferencing Mean More Travel?

by Gary Leff

man in suit looking at computer screen
Apr 12 2020

One of the trends that’s really accelerated during the current crisis is the use of online videoconferencing – whether Zoom, Webex, Google, Skype or any number of other solutions. A lot of meetings used to take place in-person that are now happening online. There are predictions of less travel in the future as this change remains sticky even after lockdowns.

However more videoconferencing also means greater location independence. You don’t have to be in the office for meetings. You can do more trips.

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How Much Does The Value Of a Frequent Flyer Mile Change During The Current Crisis?

by Gary Leff

Apr 11 2020

These are the broad factors need to be taken into account when estimating the change in value of a mileage currency, and they’re likely to apply differently to each program based on, among other things, the tendency to print miles and the financial stability of the program in uncertain times.

We need to be thinking about how much we value miles – and how much they need to change – recognizing that there are forces pushing the value both up and down at the same time.

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People Are Still Buying 100 Million Frequent Flyer Miles A Day

by Gary Leff

hand holding hundreds of dollars in cash
Apr 11 2020

Points.com says people are still buying on average 100 million frequent flyer miles a day.

And at an average of, say, 1.5 cents per point (hotel points generally go for less than airline miles) that’s just $1.5 million per day across all of those programs. What they haven’t told us is how the 100 million points total compares to what people were buying before. I’m guessing the mileage sales business is down by half.

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How Much Are Airline Bosses Cutting Their Own Pay? Probably Less Than You Think

by Gary Leff

cash
Apr 11 2020

A new SEC filing has details on the most recent United Airlines corporate executive compensation. United’s CEO Oscar Munoz will take $0 in base salary until June 30. Incoming CEO Scott Kirby will do the same. But how much of a cut is that, really?

Executive compensation is unpopular during tough times for a company. Of course if United makes it through to the other side of COVID-19 Kirby may earn his pay more than ever before.

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Why Airlines Will Have to Keep Waiving Change Fees For The Foreseeable Future

by Gary Leff

Apr 11 2020

Major U.S. airlines have waived change fees for new ticket purchases, to encourage customers to spend money in a world of uncertainty. You won’t be penalized for changing plans if you buy a new ticket now and need to change it later – you’ll retain a travel credit for future purchases with the airline.

They’ve been extending the policy little-by-little, ostensibly because it might only be necessary for a short time. It won’t be. These change fee waivers on ticket purchases are going to need to continue for many months, perhaps through the end of the year. That’s not just for the convenience of passengers, but so that people will be willing to buy tickets at all.

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What The Government Wants, In Exchange For Airline Payroll Grants

by Gary Leff

Apr 10 2020

The way the law was written the administration doesn’t have to just give away all the money. While the industry and Democratic senators (at the behest of airline unions) have argued that the money shouldn’t come with requirements, the Treasury Secretary reportedly placed a call to airline CEOs laying out the requirements for the $25 billion in payroll grants.

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One U.S. Airline Now Makes Passengers Certify Their Health Before Flying

by Gary Leff

frontier plane docked
Apr 10 2020

On April 1 the President said that “they’re doing tests on airlines – very strong tests – for getting on, getting off.” It’s possible he was referring to taking passenger temperatures rather than administering COVID-19 tests. However even that isn’t happening broadly either.

Frontier doesn’t plan to start. Instead they’re making passengers promise to take their own temperatures and to wash their hands. And they’re asking flight crew to do the same.

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