Marriott did what they said they would do – limit the carnage in the first year, in much the same way they over-indexed Bonvoy value when the program first launched (they waited to add a higher tier category and launch peak and off peak pricing, even though they announced it as their plan).
The playbook is ‘announce a negative change but wait to fully implement it’ so everyone looks at the new program and says “great!” or “not so bad!” before it gets worse. We should believe Marriott when they say next year will be worse!