United’s CEO Scott Kirby went out of his way on the earnings call to “draw a line in the sand” in Chicago—promising United will add flights to match any American expansion at O’Hare. The point of saying it publicly wasn’t bravado. It was deterrence: to signal to American (and to analysts) that new Chicago capacity will be met in kind, making growth less attractive for both airlines.
American’s response came fast anyway, announcing new routes from O’Hare—turning Kirby’s game-theory warning into an immediate test of whether this becomes a real fare war or a negotiation by headline.










